Author: Scott

Fontwell 2.10, Class 3, 3m2f Handicap Chase – Bramble Brook

Scoop the Pot will be fairy fancied to back up his latest and first win over timber, he had the first time cheek pieces on which looked to help and he goes up 2lb for a hard fought race, so whether the headgear will work as well as last time, remains to be seen, plus this will be a much different test on soft ground which at Fontwell can be treacherous. So, he’s to be taken on with course winner Bramble Brook, he’ll love the underfoot conditions and loves small fields with his record 3 from 3 in 4 or less fields. He recently looked well after a near 6-month break and will come on for the run.

Leicester 2.30, Class 3, 2m4f Handicap Hurdle – Card Game

This looks a nice competitive hurdle as it stands ATM and past mentioned Ruth Jefferson is one to follow usually in any sphere, but her hurdle strike rate stands at 24% this season with a +58.48 LSP, she has Card Game in this race who will run at Leicester for the first time but is pretty similar to Hexham where it undulates and being testing where she thrives at, apart from running the opposite way she still has good form around right handed courses. The mares last win was an emphatic 26 length romp 6 months ago and was raised 10lbs, for which she struggled in higher class races, the handicapper has quickly given her a chance dropping her 7lbs in 3 races and she’s back into much calmer 0-135 race and will have a big chance to return to form at expected big odds.

Warwick 1.25, Listed, 2m4f Novices Chase – Miss Tata

Miss Tata has been off the track for over 2 years, she was last seen winning a Listed Hurdles race and completing a run of 5 wins on the bounce, she suffered a suspensory injury early last year which shouldn’t have kept her off for as long as this, but clearly had more niggles etc. She returns as Novice Chaser which when last seen looks ideal and looks to have an exciting career in front of her and still just 6 years old, whether she’ll need the run is a big concern, but Gordon Elliott tends to have them ready and looks unlikely to cross the Irish sea just for a leg stretch.

Cheltenham 2.30, Grade 3, 3m2f Handicap Chase – Robinsfirth

A race that will need revisiting closer towards the time when we see final decs, ground etc, but at present, looks exciting. Colin Tizzard has won this race the last 2 years and has 2 saddled up for this race, which includes last years winner Robinsfirth. The gelding has not been seen since winning this by 2 lengths last year before suffering with injury, but the lightly raced gelding’s trainer Joe Tizzard has said “Robinsfirth had a little bit of heat in his leg last season but was back in full work at the start of the term and is in good form”. So, with the trainer optimistic on his form and will love any rain that comes this week, he looks set for a big run off just a 4lb higher mark.

 Russell Blair Racing

Weekend Horse Racing roundup

Two legends of the game coming face to face with Altior stamping his authority on the division with Un De Sceaux a fantastic runner up and looking at his very best. The ground classed as soft but looking and acting more like heavy had conditions favouring Un De Sceaux and he certainly looked to be relishing them, he cut through the ground stylishly and was terrific with his jumping but unfortunately for him superstar Altior was also on the top of his game and managed to not only come along UDS but pull away from him like a Group 1 flat horse. Altior now takes his perfect tally to 10 from 10 over timber, with 6 Grade 1’s to his name, he looks likely to defend his Game Spirit Chase crown at Newbury next before the festival where again he’ll look to reign in the Queen Mother Champion Chase once again. As for UDS, the 2-mile trip still looks his best trip, but owners will surely like to avoid Altior and go back down the 2m4f+ route and try and win the Ryanair again.

The Becher gave us some clues towards the National in April next year. We seen trainer James Best pick up his biggest prize money cheque with Walk in the Mill relishing the stiff testing conditions with a likeable performance, he’ll likely to be hit around the 7lb rise which would be fair and there’s no reason why the progressive gelding won’t run a big one in April at 33/1. The one that impressed me the most thou were 2016 Becher winner Vieux Lion Rouge, he runs well fresh which was backed up with gallant display back in a strong staying on 2nd from a long way back. It was up there with his best performance after a wind op and first-time tongue tie, which could open him to any kind of improvement over further and better his last National 7th, 6th & 9th finishes and his current 33/1 look very appealing. Also, Cheltenham festival winner Missed Approach at huge 50/1 odds need considering, he had an eventful race with lots going against him and done well to be as close as he was, he’ll enjoy the step up in trip and will love it if the ground was as heavy as last year’s National.

Lalor’s bubble seemed to burst when a well beaten 3rd in the Henry VIII Novices with Dynamite Dollars reversing the form, Lalor clearly didn’t like the soft to heavy ground and looked well under his best but not to take anything away from the front two, Dynamite Dollars and Ornua who for me was the one to take from the race, it may have been a fluke performance, time will tell, but he heavily impressed when setting a blistering pace and was very close on holding on, he could be dangerous in the right race with a lack of early pace.

Definitely Red done as expected in The Many Clouds Chase, even if giving 6lbs away to his rivals, he had everything in favour and was given his own way upfront to defend his crown and to see him 2 from 2 this season, he looks set for another shot at the Gold Cup in March to try and better his 6th in the last festival, we may see before that in the Cotswold Chase next month. It was Unfortunate to see 2017 Grand National winner One for Arthur lose his jockey Tom Scudamore early in the race and so we have no idea in what kind of form he’s in after a 22-month absence.

Russell Blair Racing

Sandown 1.50 Henry VIII Novices Chase, Grade 1 2m

Current Arkle fav Lalor is the star attraction of the line-up, he’s already a Novices Grade 1 winner over hurdles when winning the Top Novices hurdle at Aintree over the national festival. On season debut and our first view of him jumping timber, he seriously impressed and confirmed why all the excitement surrounds him.

Diakali also is a Grade 1 winner over hurdles for Willie Mullins, he moved to Gary Moore yard the start of the year and has impressed in all 3 from 3 over fences, he hasn’t really been beating much thou TBF and at 9 years old over a sharp 2-mile trips, he’s likely to found out against quality fields.

Dynamite Dollars impressed on chase debut but was soundly put in his place even with fitness advantage against Lalor NTO, the softer ground here will see him at his best here, but surely not enough to reverse the form, only a 5yo thou and plenty of scope, there’s plenty of time in the future to get his revenge.

Highway One O One, was soundly beaten by Dynamite Dollars earlier and is 6lbs better off so will see him closer. It’s hard to see Pingshou getting close to reversing form with both Lalor and DD. Ornua not only outclassed, he won’t enjoy the ground.

Banker – Lalor

One for Future – Dynamite Dollars

Aintree 2.05 Many Clouds Chase, Grade 2 3m1f

Definitely Red done what he needed to do on seasonal debut beating a small field that was reduced further by a faller at the first, the form of that race isn’t working out well with the 2 behind struggled to compete in their next. He did win this race last year well, but again in a very small field and looks at his best when able to dictate small fields. He again gets his own way in this race with just 3 competitors.

The closest on form and mark is Double Shuffle, he was the faller at the first in Definitely Red’s race, he’s certainly capable on his day, in which the 2^nd behind Might Bite in the King George points out, but unreliable in the same breath, yes! he can beat Definitely Red, but will he turn up and want to? Only he knows.

2017 Grand National winner One for Arthur makes his first appearance since, he will surely need the run and under these conditions, he looks outclassed and outpaced, but he’ll be the one most will be watching and taking notes for the National.

ACDC is a very likeable horse and genuine, this will be the furthest his contested in his career, he will get the trip but surely will be outclassed, even so, if not winning, he’ll run better than his odds suggest.

Banker – Definitely Red

One to Watch – One for Arthur

Sandown 3.00 Tingle Creek Chase, Grade 1 2m

Only the 4 line up, but a quality field, Unbeaten superstar over hurdles and fences Altior makes his season reappearance, he loves Sandown along with any galloping testing track, he’s getting better with age and he’s very solid when fresh, any horse is beatable obviously, just takes one mistake, but he’s the proverbial bomb proof horse of the day.

Un De Sceaux is a fav of mine and was as good as ever last year, he won this race 2 years ago, but now into his double digits next to his age and must improve 7lbs on official ratings, which over 2 miles looks impossible at this point in his career, Altior would have to underperform for UDS to win.

Sceau Royal has the most scope of the field and is the one to watch for me, his unbeaten in his last 4 races and won the Henry VIII race on this card last year, he has the benefit of a run and looks set for a bright season and will pick up Grade 1’s, but best to avoid Altior to claim them.

Saint Calvados is another with a bright future, perhaps not this year thou, with the division pretty hot.

Banker – Altior

One to Watch – Sceau Royal

Muggy Banker Treble – Lalor, Definitely Red & Altior. 4.2/1

Russell Blair Racing

Betfair Chase Preview – Saturday 8th December

Another big weekend of action, hopefully we can carry on from last Saturday’s big races where we had the 11/8 banker and a 12/1 sp winners from 3 races. The best race in terms of competitiveness and one I’m most excited in, is the Becher.

Aintree 3.00 Becher Handicap Chase, Grade 3 3m2f

An exciting race that’s basically a mini Grand National that’s run over the same course just nowhere as testing with being run at a mile less. The race does hold a lot of clues thou to the main National ran in April, not the best to follow the winners of this race in previous years thou, but a near £85k to the winner, trainers will be doing their upmost to win this big pot. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is one to look closely at, with winning this race 6 times, 3 times in the last 8 years, he saddles 2 this year and both sit at the top of the betting, Ballyoptic and last years winner Blaklion. Blaklion won this very convincingly beating The Last Samuri by 9 lengths, he returns to defend his crown off a 5lb higher mark and in a much hotter race, he does run well fresh and will love the ground, but for me especially at his current price, has question marks after his last bad display.

Stablemate Ballyoptic looks a safer bet, he has more scope, he only has 6 runs over fences but has been progressing well and when last seen, he ran a huge race coming 2^nd in the Scottish Grand National, he’s won at Aintree over hurdles and looks perfect for the National course and again will love the ground. A 33/1 shot for the National at present and one I see shortening after a good race in this.

It’ll be interesting to see Don Poli after a 22-month break, he’s a multiple Grade 1 winner which includes the RSA & Lexus Chase and is the class act of the race, it’ll be a big ask of him after such a long time off and off the top weight of 11-12 and is better watched. He’s another that could be slashed quickly for the National market, he’s currently 66/1 and considering he was 16/1 for last years National before being hit unfairly by the handicapper according to owners.

Stablemate Noble Endeavor is another that looks like he’ll need the run after a similar break and has a tough mark to contend with.

Paul Nicholls trained Present Man won well on season reappearance in what looks a pretty decent race, he’ll come on for the run and looks to have a good season in him, but this will be a totally different race over stiffer fences on soft ground, plus he’s effectively raised 10lbs after a 7lb rise and Bryony Frost not able to claim her 3lb anymore, he’ll surely find this too much.

Ultragold for me is the interesting horse of the field, he loves the National course with his record reading 121 around here, last seen over here winning the Topham Handicap Chase for the 2^nd year running, this will be his first run over this trip but the way he’s finished his last 3 races here, the extra trip looks like we’ll see further improvement, I would of liked to of seen Harry Cobden back in the saddle, but he has prior engagements at Sandown and stand in jockey Tom O’Brien is very good,  is having a great season and has won on the horse in the past.

Missed Approach looks dangerous, the yard have hit form and the booking of claiming Sam Waley-Cohen is a positive, all his 5 wins in any code have come around left handed tracks, his last win came in a competitive handicap at the festival earlier in  the year, he was only a short distance winner but looked good for more, he was however hit with a 8lb rise and I’m in doubt his improved that much over the summer.

Vieux Lion Rouge won this race 2 years ago beating Highland Lodge by a head, he disappointed in defending his crown off 10lbs higher, he returns this year off just 4lbs higher mark than when winning this and has a wind op, but as mentioned last week, avoid all David Pipe’s first-time out runners like the plague.

Most Likely Winer – Ballyoptic

Best Value – Ultragold

One to Watch – Don Poli

Russell Blair Racing

Newbury Saturday 1^st December

 

Two nice races from Newbury both over the chase course where the ground will most likely be on the softer side of good.
12.45 John Francome Novices 3m Chase Grade 2
We start off with a lively novices chase, so we have to start off with Colin Tizzard’s chance Kilbricken Storm who will be trying to win this race for his yard for the 4th year in a row, Colin’s last winners being Elegant Escape, Thistlecrack & Native River, so a hot race to follow in recent years. This will be just Kilbricken Storm’s 2nd race over fences after he won a little unconvincingly on debut. He’s a novices Grade 1 winning Cheltenham festival winner over hurdles and has loads of potential over fences but ATM as good as he’ll be, he looks like he needs to jump a few more until we see him close to or even surpass his hurdle form.
Santini was under 5 lengths behind Kilbricken Storm at the festival, it was just his 3rd run over hurdles that day and he was given a very easy patient ride, NTO when ridden with more purpose he won a novices Grade 1 at Aintree, even if not yet seen over fences, every bit of him looks a great chaser in the making and he’s the one to watch in this race, personally I think they’ll go easy with him to begin with, so as good as he’ll be, the tipsters at Sports Betting Stars think he’s not a betting proposition.
Mr Big Shot too looks an exciting chaser, will relish the ground and stiff fences, but avoid all David Pipe’s first time out runners like the plague ATM, I can count all his first time out winners on one finger this season.
Now Rocky’s Treasure is one of the safest bets in the race, we’ve seen him in 3 chase events all of which his won with ease and jumped very well, this is a big jump up in class but he’s progressing well and loves left handed, flat galloping tracks, a big concern is the ground, his best have all been on good ground, even if he did run a good race around this time last year on soft at Cheltenham, I’d want it to dry out well before backing.
Le Breuil looks a good chaser even if not all that fluent over his fences LTO at Cheltenham in what looks a hot race and will work out good, but on that evidence I just feel this 3 miles will be too testing for him especially on soft ground.
3.00 Trophy Chase 3m2f Grade 3
The 2nd graded race has seen many great past winners of this race which include Native River and Denman. This race see’s Elegant Escape and Thomas Patrick meet again after the former just got the better of the latter in an exciting Listed clash at Sandown early last month (November) Elegant Escape is 5lbs worse off in this race but he looks to have more scope and for me the likely successor of the 2.
Ms Parfois is the only mare in the field and is an interesting placement, she looks very well treated from her 2 seconds at both Cheltenham and Aintree the end of last season and makes her season reappearance with a wind op, she’ll love the ground and looks interesting here, I would of preferred to see trainer Anthony Honeyball in better form if I was going to back this mare fresh thou.
Dingo Dollar’s trainer and jockey are both in great form, he recently had a leg stretch over hurdles, so will be fit, he likes the course and goes on any ground, I feel he’s a little high in the weights thou especially in a race as tough as this.
American is another that’s on a tough mark, but he’ll love conditions, trainer’s in hot form and the booking of 5lb claimer Miss A B O’Connor whose well worth her claim will see him run a good race.
The Young Master has returned in terrific spirits and has won his last 2, he sneaks into this off bottom weight but looks a bit high in the weights at his age now from past form and the testing ground against.
Black Corton also has a tough job at the weights, he gave jockey Bryony Frost all kinds of problems in the Charlie Hall, he’s a class act on his day and should come on for that, but would be better suited not being handicapped.
Sizing Tennessee the oldest horse in the race, but is improving with age, he’ll love the ground and his emphatic win the start of October has taken a big boost with the 2nd Capeland winning his next 2 races. He was hit with just a 5lb rise for that victory which looks very lenient and the inform yard book Tom Scudamore once more who got the best out of the gelding LTO. For me he’s a bet to be on.

Russell Blair

 

The first hurdle Grade 1 of the season kicks off here and we have 6 ATM that’ll be going to post, the hurdle track at Newcastle was declared 5.6 on the going stick early this morning with a little more rain to come, 5.6 is around the soft mark with heavy in places, even if potentially drying a little, we’ll be focusing on soft ground.
Buveur D’Air comes into the race as the red hot favourite and trying to make it a very impressive 11 wins on the trot, his last loss came against the mighty Altior over 32 months ago, along the way he’s notched up 6 Grade 1’s to his name which included this race last year after a very similar break. This year is certainly a tougher race with the likes of Cheltenham festival winners Summerville Boy and Irish raider Samcro but enough to stop Buveur D’Air? I think not and you will find many of the best betting tipster backing him. Although he does improve as the season goes on, he has great record when fresh.

He was last seen when winning the Champion hurdle for the 2nd time at Cheltenham when beating Melon in one of the most exciting races of the festival, they went pretty quick upfront in testing conditions, Buveur D’Air was up with the pace the whole way which looked a bad call with the pace setters dropping out of the race pretty quickly a fair way out, even Buveur who still looked to be going well was headed by a more patiently ridden Melon 3f out and for a brief second you’d think that it’ll be hard to come back, but Buveur dug very deep to show what an excellent gelding he is. Since then the gelding has had a wind op and Nicky Henderson is pleased with his work and condition at home, so everything looks set for another big run from what looks like the banker of the weekend.
Of the rest of the 6 field runners, there’s only really 3 to offer any threat, Samcro returns after a disappointing loss to a race fit Bedrock who at the time was rated just 149, although he’ll come on for the run and is 5lbs better off in the weights to reverse the form with Bedrock, he left a few concerning questions unanswered and is best left for now. Summerville Boy steps out of Novice company for the first time and this will be easily his toughest race yet, for me too tough, but is the horse I’m most interested in watching for the coming season and he’ll only improve when stepping up in trip. Bedrock is progressing well but will find it hard in this company. The other 2 runners Vision Des Flos could have his form boosted by Wholestone later today and will like the underfoot conditions, this race is surely too hot for him thou and he needs much further than these 2 miles, but is one to watch for future lesser races and Bleu Et Rouge is simply Buveur D’Air’s pacemaker.

Russell Blair

Checkout Russell Blair Racing Tips here

Over the coming weeks, we’ll take a look over some of the most over looked jump sires of the game and some of their best horses to look out for.

Poliglote sadly passed early this year at the age of 26, early in his stallion career he received French champion sire on the flat with his most notable winner from Solemia winning the Prix de l’arc de Triomphe. His progeny has since excelled over the jumps especially fences and not only a big fan favourite in France with his kids So French, Device, Perfect Impulse etc, his progeny on Britsih soil over the last few years have also been thriving with the likes of multiple Grade 1 winner Don Poli, Scilly Isles Chase winner Top Notch and Melling chase winner Politogue.

Politogue as mentioned won an exciting Melling chase in his last race of last season, he returned this season in the same form to beat race fit rivals on a penalty to win the Christy 1965 chase to put his name down as a leading contender for the King George.

Top Notch was last seen beating Art Mauresque giving away 6lb in a Grade 2, it was his furthest trip to date and he looked to appreciate it and looks ready for a good 3-mile campaign, there’s certainly a very strong looking stayers division this year though and whether he’s capable of matching the best talent is debatable, but he’ll surely be running some big races in quality fields.

Sire Du Berlais only win was in France before recruited to the Gordon Elliott yard early last year, since then he’s been campaigned over hurdles predominantly over 2 and a half mile trips, it’s been a mixed bag of results for the big young gelding, but his bred for testing chase races and while yet to see a fence I’m sure in good time we’ll see his true potential and one to follow.

Le Patriote ran well on unsuitable ground in a Grade 3 on season debut after a long absence before winning a class 2 handicap in what looked an unsuitable sharp trip again on fast ground, he certainly looks pattern class and no doubt will pick up decent prize money when the ground becomes testing, whether its over 2 miles or 2 and a half, he’s another to keep onside for the season.

Golden Birthday simply needs recognition for his character, he has a win in every sphere or code. He won a good class handicap 2 over hurdles in September last year, before winning his first try on the flat in a maiden, he then went on to win on his first try on the AW, before completing a 5 timer in a class 3 handicap at Doncaster. If that wasn’t enough, less than a year later he then went on to record a win over fences on his 2^nd attempt. A genuine horse and a true credit to his sire, he isn’t the biggest of horses and isn’t scopey enough to follow but a horse you want to cheer on.

Poli Roi is another for Gordon Elliott, he impressed when winning as he should have on chasing debut, again he isn’t the biggest but he’ll have a good season for sure and for now one to keep onside.

Didero Vallis won on hurdling debut for Willie Mullins the start of last season, while he to some arguably disappointing since the hype, he on the whole ran with credit, the last time we seen him being his best display while screaming out for the larger obstacles. He’s since been sold for £46k and switched yards to Venetia Williams and looks set for a campaign over fences, while he won’t be no world beater, he’ll certainly enjoy the quicker ground and larger obstacles and surprise many.

Russell Blair

The Best Of the Betfair Chase card 

Not the strongest of looking Listed Novices Hurdles at Haydock, but Grand Sancy started off Paul Nicholls across the card double well in the end. Cause Toujours was the gamble of the race, he started the day around 5/1 and backed into 15/8 before easing out to 9/4 dictated the pace, he travelled the best of the field and was slickest over his hurdles, it was clear why he was so well supported, he looked to have the eventual winning fav Grand Sancy in his pocket when 4 lengths ahead when jumping the last hurdle, but he quickly emptied on the run in and Grand Sancy who was a bit too keen throughout his race still came past very strongly and effortlessly to win by 2 lengths and they was well clear of the rest of the field. He’s now 3 from 4 this season and since his wind op and looks capable of bagging himself a couple of nice prizes especially over further if getting him to settle. Trainer Paul Nicholls said “He’s not going to win the Supreme but he’s a good, fun horse who will make a chaser next season”

The Grade 3 Stayers Handicap Hurdle seen trainer Emma Lavelle pick up her biggest prize winner in her career when Paisley Park won a thrilling finish. Ian Williams was sitting on 2 winners for the day and had the red hot fav First Assignment who many thought he was Ian Williams banker and was being bet that way. But Paisley Park had other ideas and showed excellent stamina when although still in touch before the last fence, he looked well held and wasn’t helped by a crashing fall just next to him, but the top weight who was giving away 12lbs to the fav quickly powered home to pass First Assignment and Shades Of Midnight on the run in. The Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle has been mentioned as their next target and while he’d have to find more again to be in the mix, there’s no reason the progressive gelding won’t be well fancied.

The big race of the day and first Grade 1 of the season was a joy to watch 5 of the country’s best chase stayers and was a pleasure to see Bristol De Mai win and prove many, including myself wrong and win this race for a 2^nd year running. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies who isn’t having the best of times recently, showed a terrific training performance to have BDM in peak condition and prove him to one of the best when at the top of his game. BDM wasn’t exactly foot perfect neither did he win as well as last year, but he dictated at a solid pace and even thou he was headed for very short periods of the race, he was remained very calm and quickly got his head back in front. Native River impressed in 2^nd, for me he jumped better than BDM but didn’t have BDM cruising speed nor tank but will surely come on for the run and enjoy stiffer tests throughout the season. The horse to take from the race thou, was Thistlecrack, a return from 11 months off and just his 3^rd run in 22 months after a tendon injury, he showed tons of speed and showed what a engine he still has, his jumping had to watched with squinting eyes for most of the race and ran through snatches, but to still finish under 6 lengths off the winner was a credit to him confirmed he still has it in him to add more Grade 1’s to his name.

Russell Blair

A Glance over some of the weeks best racing action and some horses to watch out for.

Monday 26^th Nov

Kempton 2.05

Mia’s Storm had been off the track for 6 months when on the end of a nasty fall over fences, before returning back to form last month even after a drift in the market to win with plenty in hand over hurdles giving away plenty of weight, the yard for now stick to the smaller obstacles and she has a great chance of adding to a previous Listed win, before trying to resume her exciting looking chasing career.

Tuesday 27^th

Lingfield 3.00

Holbrook Park returns from a 7-month break in ATM a competitive looking handicap chase, his record on sharp left-handed tracks over fences reads 12141, an even better 111 when the ground is better than soft. The booking of Bryony Frost a big positive and the yard are in great form. Somewhere To Be both wins have been on left handed sharp tracks, he ran a cracker on season debut and surely would have won well if fit, the form of the race is working out well, he unfortunately was risen 8lbs but still looks capable and has a big shout if the rain comes.

Wednesday 28^th

Wolverhampton 3.55

John Gosden’s Graffiti Master will be fancied if taking part, his only win was on synthetics, before a huge run behind double group 1 winning Kew Gardens (rated 117) and then another big run behind Key Victory and multiple Group 2 winning Old Persian (117). He did disappoint the start of the month when well backed after a gelding operation, but after a 6-month break over a sharp mile on soft ground was far from ideal and can be forgiven. He’ll come on for the run and this is a much easier handicap off a mark of 102 over a more suitable 10 furlongs. Glendevon may spoil the party, he’s far from trustworthy but his last performance has to be marked up when doing everything wrong and still finishing 2^nd, I’d prefer him on a right handed for how he runs, but if trainer Richard Hughes has ironed out his kinks, he’s a winner in waiting and could have a bright 4yo campaign.

Thursday 29^th

Chelmsford 7.15

Had a nudge for John Dunlop’s Achaeus a couple of weeks ago, they we’re happy with his progress at home and he’s shown plenty to say he’ll be quite smart, he’s still a work in progress, he was expectedly green on debut and was given an easy time of things. He has an entry at both Kempton and Chelmsford, but from what I believe, they are siding with Chelmsford, while he’s not to be backed for this race, he’s to be closely watched and monitored for future races. Tauteke was very eye catching on debut, she has a nice pedigree and will relish further in time, while she’s capable of winning a race like this, she’s again one for the future and one to add to your trackers.

Newbury 3.00

The Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle looks an exciting renewal if the main protagonists line up and deserves a much closer look at the race closer towards the time. Unowhatimeanharry likes it around Newbury and won this race 2 years ago before finishing 2^nd in this last year off a penalty. He looked and ran well in a race he won last year on this season’s reappearance, he was under 5 lengths behind Wholestone and cried out for further in his advancing years. Although Wholestone has an engine for 3 miles he looks better suited to 2 and half miles these days, while Unowhatimeanharry will relish the extra trip and is 2lbs better off in this race, so for me will confidently reverse the form over his favoured course. Trainer Jedd O’Keefe has had Mr Scrumpy, Doctor Thea and Jack Lamb all primed on season reappearance so no worries he won’t have last year’s Grade 1 winning Long Walk Sam Spinner in tip top form, for me the 6lb penalty is against and if the rain doesn’t come the faster ground won’t suit.

Russell Blair

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Just like we did with the trainers, we take a look at how well the jump jockeys have started the season and showing the most profitable overall jockeys with over 10 wins to their name. While I wouldn’t recommend following every jockey and trainer blind on the list, it does for now help us find which are profitable and under which circumstances to take a closer look.

Sean Bowen has so far been the most profitable jockey to follow, he particularly excels when taking part at Worcester and has a +£79.25 LSP at Worcester alone under all codes this season and has an even more impressive +£92.59 when riding for farther Peter Bowen, so simply back the jockey and trainer combo blind at least for now. Daniel Sansom overall profit is skewed by a 50/1 shot in a bumper for Paul George, but has some good profit (£10.50) when riding for Seamus Mullins, all but 1 of his 13 wins have been together and are worth shortlisting. Look out for Harry Skelton when at Uttoxeter, it’s not exactly a secret, but he has 33 wins (52% strike rate) there this year alone, a +£64.75 LSP. Harry Cobden most wins have come for Paul Nicholls but his worth following when riding for Colin Tizzard with a +£48.25 LSP this season and a £33.54 record alone at Wincanton.

Taking a look at jockeys now over hurdles, Sean Bowen again tops the list, most profitable again at Worcester with a £59.75 LSP over hurdles and £43.66 LSP for his farther Peter. Leighton Aspell has a healthy £15.17 LSP record when riding for Oliver Sherwood over hurdles. Harry Cobden record was already touched upon when riding for Colin Tizzard or when at Wincanton which is backed by his £36.00 and £32.31 for both over hurdles. Again, Daniel Sansom record was already mentioned and is further bettered when over hurdles for Seamus Mullins £12.50.

Last but not least the jump stats have Sean Bowen once again at the top and it’s his strongest profit to boot and best strike rate, again back anything of his when riding for his farther at £46.93 LSP and his record at most courses is solid. Past records have indicated it’s not the best move backing the Skelton’s blind especially over hurdles, but this year they look better than ever and are showing a very healthy £19.08 when teaming up over fences. Good to see Bryony Frost on the list, she doesn’t stand out at any particular course but is very solid most places mainly due her great positioning and no nonsense ride style. Jonathan Burke has built a good relationship with Charlie Longsdon and has a £11.63 LSP over fences. Richard Johnson has surprisingly high LSP with Philip Hobbs this season, but I wouldn’t recommend backing them as that will eventually drop fairy quickly down to being over bet. Lastly Ben Poste is a bit a secret over fences, he has a 20% strike this season over fences now although only £2.58 LSP from his rides this year, it’s consistently churned out profit and is +£34.45 over the last 5 years, while his hurdle stats are very weak and is -£188.17, it’s safe to back his chase runs and lay his hurdle rides blindly for some tidy profit.

Russell Blair

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