23rd July betting tips and insights

Wolverhampton

4.15 7f Class 4 Handicap – Engrossed 10/3

Won a good novice event over C&D in December beating Regal Banner rated 72 and a very well bred Clerisy back in 3rd now rated 85, Engrossed got a mark of 72 after a below par run under a penalty at Kempton NTO, she nearly took advantage of what looked a very lenient mark in her first handicap race again back over this C&D. LTO, she was very unfortunate that day and had to cover a lot of ground coming widest of all to try and catch the winner that had the run of the race, with not a lot coming from off the pace showed how hard it was that day also to mark up Engrossed effort somewhat. She even took a nice boost with the 3rd Molly Mai over a length away winning NTO, plus Symphony back in 4th winning since and further behind have gone close since also giving the form a nice look. Engrossed is raised 3lbs for that effort which on her last effort is very fair, she’s entered against her elders today which leaves her looking very unexposed against this weak exposed field and gets the services of top jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time who won this race last year, he’s having a fine season and has a great set of rides today at a course he thrives at, he’s already notched up 13 winners here this season from 52 runs, a cool 25% strike rate, so would be no surprise to see him come away with a few wins today.

Chelmsford

6.20 6f Class 2 Handicap – Intuitive 2/1

Clearly loves the polytrack with 2 wins from 3 attempts and was unlucky not to make that a perfect 3 from 3 when just just beat by half a length over this C&D, he was caught in a little bit of a barging match early and when the pace picked up he was caught in a little bit of a pocket, so his close loss can go down as very unfortunate, he’s raised a lb for that while the winner Alkaraama is raised 3lbs, so not only more luck in running enough to reverse the form but is also weighted to get the better of Alkarrama today and both up against a more exposed field a big plus. Intuitive also gets a jockey boost with De Sousa taking the reigns for the first time, he loves Chelmsford and is currently on a 26% strike rate this season here, trainer James Tate doesn’t use the jockey often and is the first time this season he’s reached out for Silvestre which is significant, James is having a excellent season to date with 45 winners, a 26% strike rate with a positive level stake profit and an even better 31% strike rate the last 2 weeks, he’s had 6 winners at Chelmsford this year from 19 tries (32% strike rate) with a +£13.13 LSP.

8.20 7f Class 4 Handicap – Chatham House 9/4

A very weak race that won’t take much winning and Chatham House gets the services of top jockey Ryan Moore for the first time is very eye catching, the gelding is a 9 race maiden but has just the 2 runs to his name in handicap company, the latest taking the eye from a bad draw at Chester, he had a lot to do when turning into the straight at Chester with a notorious short run in so the odds was stacked well against him but clearly the best horse in the field that day he done remarkable to get as close as he did (4th) with the form taking a good boost with the 2nd Harvey Dent winning NTO, Chatham looked a clear winner in waiting after that performance and will prefer a fairer track like Chelmsford, plus as mentioned gets the services of Ryan Moore will be a big plus and is in good current form and there is no better jockey at Chelmsford with a fantastic 36% career strike rate at the course with a +£51 LSP to boot.

Russell Blair Racing

11th July betting tips and preview

A nice treble on the blog yesterday, be nice to hit another today.

Newmarket

1.50 1m5f Group 3 Bahrain Trophy – Eagles By Day 9/4

A great pedigree, the dams sire Golan won the Guineas at Newmarket and placed behind Galileo in both the English and Irish Derby’s, Eagles dam Missunited was very smart herself with 11 wins to her name, which included a Group 3 win and was runner up in Royal Ascot’s Group 1 Gold Cup showing plenty of stamina, also Eagles superstar sire Sea the Stars won the Guineas at Newmarket before winning both the Derby’s and also adding the Arc to his prestigious list of 7 Group 1 victories and unbeaten 3yo career. Eagles By Day latest run when 3rd in the King Edward at Royal Ascot is easily the strongest piece of form and put behind him his tame effort in the Lingfield Derby trial on soft ground, clearly liking the sounder surface he stayed on one of the strongest in the race and on that evidence will love this step up in trip on faster ground in a weaker race looks a very tough but to crack. Trainer Michael Bell is having a good season and is in great current form, he books Daniel Tudhope who knows the colt well and is is also in great current form with 19 winners the last fortnight (28% strike rate).

2.25 6f July Stakes Group 2 – Visinari 1/1

Visinari looked like a 3yo not just in stature but when highly impressive on his debut over C&D beating a race experienced short priced fav Ottoman Court by over 3 lengths practically on the bridle with the rest of the field 15+ lengths back, the form of the race has also worked out very well. Visinari sire Dark Angel won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes over the Newmarket Rowley 6 furlongs at 2 and his son looks more of a monster and even more forward, a very exciting future looks to lay ahead for trainer Mark Johnstone’s colt who also is having a great season, his best so far to date and hit 27 winners the last fortnight with a sweet 26% strike rate, he has a good record at Newmarket and significantly books Frankie Dettori who not only does he not rely on the talented jockeys services often but Frankie is simply riding out of his skin at present, he had a breathtaking Royal Ascot and carried on his form with a awesome 50% strike rate the last 2 weeks hitting doubles and trebles and is the guy you simply want to be on at present.

Doncaster

3.55 5f Class 5 Handicap – Celsius 6/4

Improved tons for the gelding operation over the winter and has won his last 2 from 3 with his loss coming after handing badly and coming a close 2nd, his last win was last week in a class 4 at Haydock, plenty went wrong, he was awkward out of the stalls and was keen and green, he hit in running troubles twice but still powered away and won easily in the end, clearly very ahead of the handicapper at present. He obviously has plenty of chinks thou and not one to fully rely upon, but still learning his craft and if his learnt a little from his last race he should be far too good for these carrying a 6lb penalty down in grade.

Russell Blair

10th July betting tips and preview

Catterick

4.00 2m Class 4 Handicap – Lever Du Soleil 11/10

Rated 125 over hurdles earlier this year took full advantage of his mark of 54 on the flat when recording back to back victories, the last off 59 when beating Sbraase who looks looks very well handicapped on past form and is great form when chasing a hat trick, they pulled over 7 lengths clear of the rest of the field leaving them both looking well ahead of the handicapper, LDS goes up another 6lb in his attempt of a hat trick but not only on last display but 60lbs less than his hurdling mark compared to the usual 35lbs rule of thumb leaves him looking still around 25lbs well in, the last display was also over a sharp 1m5f and the way he stayed on them this step back up to 2 miles will be a big benefit. Yet to run at Catterick but on form he handles all course characteristics, trainer Gavin Cromwell is in superb current form with a 31% strike rate the last 2 weeks and his chances on British shores are always to take note especially on the flat where he operates with huge 32% strike rate the last 5 years, a cool +11.53 level stake profit  which his added to this year with a 50% strike rate 3 from 6 tries, albeit 2 from this gelding. Clifford Lee is booked again whose ridden his last 2 winners and is excellent current form and grabbed himself 4 winners from his last 8 rides the past 7 days. This is a quick turnaround having only raced 2 days ago and was fairly ridden to claim the win so is a big worry he may be a little jaded, but if still in good spirits, will be very hard to beat.

Yarmouth

4.20 6f Class 2 Handicap – Raucous 5/2

Has the joint highest weight on his back with 10 stone which is eased a little with Cieren Fallon handily taking 5lbs off who is well worth his claim. The gelding was rated as high as 106 in his prime for William Haggas and hasn’t quite lived up to expectation since joining Robert Cowell last spring with just the 1 win to his name from a mark of 90, however is very consistent with a string of places in some hot races, most notably LTO when 4th in Royal Ascots Wokingham competitive 26 runner field under Fallon Jr, running anything like that today in this much weaker race leaves him the one they all have to beat.

Bath

6.00 1m2f Class 6 Handicap – Perfect Grace 6/5

Big eye catching performance over course and distance when just beat towards the line by previous winning and fav Sadlers Beach by a neck, that was off the back of 137 day break and in her first try in handicap company, entitled to come on from that plenty and is due to go up 4lbs in future races but escapes that here being turned out quickly. Trainer Archie Watson is good current form with 10 winners the last fortnight, he books Hollie Doyle who he has a good partnership ship with and she was on fillies back LTO when just missing out on the win.

Russell Blair

7th July betting tips and preview

Ayr

2.30 1m2f Class 4 Handicap – Cockalorum 9/4

Went into the notebook after a big display LTO, he had a horrible draw in 15 at York which was made worse with the field jumping just as well as he did which left him keen while jockey Paul Hanagan doing his best to drop the horse in but with no luck left him one of the widest in the big field, that would of blown most horses chances and as a result you’ll typically see them back out of their races quickly, but he stayed on in incredible fashion down the slowest part of the track that day to finish 4th under a soft ride close home from Hanagan. The whole performance needs marking up in a competitive race and this is a easier race all around, also today he gets a nice step up in trip which not only a good move on his last display but also is perfect on breeding, he’s very lightly raced and has just the 2 runs in handicap company and for his new trainer Roger Fell so is very unexposed and his mark of 79 looks highly exploitable. Trainer is in fantastic form and has a big chance of a treble today from his 3 chances (Cockalorum, Harome & Global Spirit), he has a good record at Ayr with a positive level stake profit and books Ben Curtiswho himself is in great current form and share a great partnership with a 20% strike rate and a excellent +£62.38 LSP.

4.10 1m Class 3 Handicap – Smile A Mile 4/1

Has a great pedigree and was having a great season after being gelded over the winter, he’s 2 from 4 this season the last win coming in a good class 4 at Haydock where they went a good early clip, he was involved in the early pace and still powered home comfortably to win by over 2 lengths, the 2nd Jaleel boosted the form when winning a better race at Newmarket NTO, from there he went up 6lb which was far from excessive for a dominant display plus his progressiveness, but he ran ran well below par NTO at Pontefract, he’s turned out again quickly which is a good sign and trainer Mark Johnston is well renowned for getting his chances to bounce back quickly, he’s in excellent form with a 32% strike rate the last 2 weeks and hit a 4 timer yesterday from feast of rides, he books Franny Norton who himself is in excellent form with a 33% strike rate the last fortnight and was on 3 of Mark Johnston’s winners yesterday.

4.40 7f Class 5 Handicap – Global Spirit 9/4

Another Roger Fell chance and was another that went into the notebook after last display which I’ll come back to later, the gelding moved to Roger Fell earlier this year after a unsuccessful early career with Ed Dunlop being a 13 race maiden, he nearly won on trainer debut off a mark 64 over 6 furlongs just beaten by a neck looking like further would of suited more, either way he went up 3lbs and won easily NTO again over 6f, another 2 good runs later on 6f again crying out for further he got his wish when upped to 7f LTO at Haydock where he ran a career best when runner up and not having a clear run at a crucial point, he’s turned out quickly and so doesn’t get a hike from the handicapper also cheek pieces are fitted for the first time under Roger Fell which look a good move to keep him focused early on in his races which he does seem to have concentration problems.

Russell Blair

6th July Eclipse day betting tips and preview

1.50 5f Group 3 Coral Charge – Caspian Prince 7/1

The oldest competitor in the field at the age of 10 who won the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes at Curragh beating double Group 1 winning Marsha 2 years back proving top form at the time, just the 2 wins to his name since which he recorded in good competitive handicaps off big weights last season certainly proving to retain his ability. Not the best of starts this season when a not beating a rival in a tough Group 2 Temple Stakes, but arguably not ready after a long break, he put that behind him when a solid run in a competitive Dash at Epsom where setting up a fast early gallop which would of been tough for anyone to maintain but to try and do it from the highest weight of the race off 10 stone is near impossible, so the performance needs marking up considerably and Group company looks more fitting off his current mark, so looks perfectly placed in a race like this where he’ll also enjoy a slower tempo and should get his own way of things upfront and dictate on ground in his favour. Michael Appleby doesn’t travel to Sandown often and sends just the one there today so obviously aimed for this and the horse is yet to run here but course is very similar to Curragh so should be perfect and he has a nice draw with the higher stalls having more pace, also significantly Oisin Murphy is booked for the first time, yet to ride on the horse but is a big jockey upswing, is having a blinding season and has a great record when teaming up with Mr Appleby.

2.25 1m Class 2 Challenge Handicap – Escobar 11/1

A great race to look forward to and one that looks overpriced is Escobar, just the one win to his name last season for at the time his new trainer David O’Meara, from there he ran in this race where he ran a solid 2nd off the 2nd highest weight in the race off 102, the race wasn’t ran to suit when held up and nothing coming from off the pace that day making that performance very eye catching and a big mark up, he finished the season up and down and added another couple of big places in big handicaps showing there’s a big win in him in the right race. He hasn’t been in the best of form this season in his 3 shows but as a result he’s dropped down to a good mark, 4lbs lower than his tilt in this race last year but the biggest thing that took the eye was the booking of Andrea Atzeni which is a big sign of intent, he’s yet to ride the gelding before and you hardly see David O’Meara reach out for Andrea whose having a brilliant season and is in top current form and rides Sandown well.

3.35 1m2f Group 1 Eclipse – Magical 3/1

Ok hard to back against the best filly that I’ve ever seen, double Arc winner and 7 time Group 1 winner Enable whose class may see her in front on the line, but is her first race for 8 months and trainer John Gosden has stated although happy with her, he feels she’ll come on for the run, also all her Group 1 victories have come over a mile four furlongs, so while she has the speed for this drop in trip, she may fare better over further where she’s a natural plus her only loss has come on fast ground like today and certainly shapes better on softer ground, which makes perfect sence to look elsewhere from a heavy heart. Look no further than Magical that’s in terrific form she’s won her first 3 races this season before a solid 2nd at Royal Ascot in the Prince Of Wales, although she goes on soft ground she found it tough to pick up on the and ground to catch Crystal Ocean but still ran with plenty of credit and for me was still the best horse in the race if they ran on a more sounder surface, she faced Enable last season in the Breeders Cup Turf where she just lost out by under a length, she did cover less ground than Enable that day, so had no excuses and rightly beat, but that was over 1m4f and Magical has found her niche this season over 10f’s and has race fitness and ground onside so for me looks set to break Enables winning streak.

Russell Blair

2nd July betting tips and preview

Hamilton

2.45 Class 6 Handicap – Brutalab 9/2

A 5 race maiden that started his race career as a 3yo this season, he’s shaped very well in his last 2 handicaps both placing 3rd, the latest in a 0-70 at Carlisle over a 1m3f trip, he travelled superbly well and hit the front 2 out but couldn’t keep up the gallop and was taken close home, while a drop to a mile maybe not his optimum, I believe a testing 9f or sharp 10f ideal for him but either way this testing 8f not far off and will certainly help him build on his last effort, also this is a much easier 0-60 race and David Allan takes over the reins and is by far a better jockey than Rachel Richardson who was on the last twice, he also rides Hamilton well with a nice 20% strike rate the last 5 years.

4.15 1m Class 2 Handicap – Coolagh Forest 5/1

Won a 3yo class 2 handicap at Musselburgh in April with the form very hot with the 4th winning a strong class 2 NTO, and the 5th, 6th and 7th also winning since, from there he went up 4lbs and raced against his elders in a class 4 again at Musselburgh, not only winning but smashing his rivals when the gap opened up for him, he powered away under hands and heels and was eased down but still won by 6 lengths looking like potentially a black type contender, he’s hit by a huge 12lbs rise in the weights but is helped by Sean Davies 3lb claim who is worth it and in great current form with a 7956/1 hat trick yesterday.

Brighton

5.00 5f Class 5 Handicap – Essaka 10/3

Trainer Tony Carroll is in great current form and is on course to have his best season to date, his best chance of a winner comes from this gelding whose won at Brighton 3 times in the past, the most recent when bolting up by 4 lengths last month he ran again twice since and was a little unlucky not to catch the King Crimson who had a easy lead and made all, Essaka travelled very well and looked to have another win up his sleeve, he does go up another 2lb and jockey Sophie Ralston loses 2lbs of her claim which isn’t ideal but running anything like last time he has big claims.

Russell Blair

1st July betting tips and preview

Pontefract

2.00 6f Class 5 Handicap – Round The Island 16/1

Hasn’t looked in the best of form this season but scratching beneath the surface, it doesn’t look as bad as it seems, in his career he’s yet to win at any trip apart from his optimum 6 furlongs, from his 5 runs this season, he’s only had 2 runs at 6 and one of those was in a class 4 where he also hasn’t been successful in any class above 5 in his career, so that leaves him with just the one run this year at his optimum conditions and even in that he was better than the bare form reads, he was slow away which is a trait but as a result he was caught wide and covered more ground than anyone, plus on soft ground is even more of a disadvantage, the race wasn’t run to suit and was given an easy ride when his path was cut into the straight, so it’s easy to put a line through that effort last month. Today there’s a lot in favour for this gelding to turn things around, his record over this C&D in class 5 or less company reads 61414118, he’s a huge 10lbs under his last last winning mark he recorded here in September and the pace of the race is ideal with plenty of early speed with John Clare, Tricky Dicky, Scuzeme and Gullane One all likely to set up and frantic race and set it up for a closer like Round The Island.

2.30 6f Class 2 Conditions – Toro Strike 9/2

Easily the best bred colt in the field, no doubt bred for a mile but at this point in his career the 6f looks ideal, his sire Toronado won over 6f as a 2yo before becoming a double Group 1 winner at a mile which included the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, the dam herself was smart and won a Group 3 over a mile in America and was also a runner up in a Group 1 and a halfsister to Group 1 winners Visionaire & Tara’s Tango, also the dams sire Smart Strike sired superstar Curlin who notched up 7 Group 1 victories, so a pedigree to certainly get excited over. Toro Strike scored when last seen in a maiden at Thirsk which doesn’t look the strongest of races and he had to work hard to get the victory but with his potential and the plus of a more testing track I predict he could again be hard to pass. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race in the past and has a good record at the course and a small positive level stake profit.

Windsor

7.45 6f Class 2 Handicap – Ice Age 5/1

Record over this C&D reads 41334111 the latest was in this race last year off a mark of 103, while not totally disgraced, he’s yet to win since but the majority has been in some tough races of tough marks, he’s been slipping down the handicap this year and nearly took advantage off this mark in a competitive Directors Cup Handicap at Ripon last month, he was first of his group of those that ran stands side but was beaten by Hyperfocus by a short head who raced far side, the form has been boosted with the 3rd and 4th both 1st and 2nd in a strong York class 2 handicap since and plus other winners have come out the race since that was further back. Ice Age has ridden again since but not just a bad start but also over a sharp 5 furlongs clearly not suiting and can be forgiven, today’s return to 6 furlongs is perfect along with ground conditions and he’s a healthy 6lbs lighter than last years success from a similar draw, there’s also a distinct lack of pace also which will be a big benefit for the usual front runner.

Russell Blair

30th June Selections

Cartmel

2.35 2m1f Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – Project Bluebook 3/1

Hasn’t won for over 2 years but only 7 runs over hurdles to his name in that time and all in tougher races and hasn’t been disgraced in most, he took the eye on his 2nd start of the season in a strong competitive Swinton at Haydock, he clearly loved the drying ground and his performance needs marking up lots when looking well beat, wandering a little and bumped a couple of times but came home very powerfully and was gaining on the winner all the way to the line to miss out by under a length, today he returns to a easier class 2 race and will love the ground, he may find top weight a little tough and hasn’t rode with a weight as much as this on his back in the past,  while looking the one to beat still it is a concern.

Windsor

3.15 5f Class 3 Handicap – Swiss Air 2/1

Nicely bred, full sister to multiple listed winner Swiss Dream rated as high as 107, also half sister Swiss Diva a double Group 3 winner rated 116 and half brother Swiss Spirit also a Group 3 winner rated as high as 116, so selection Swiss Air rating of 80 is very exploitable providing she’s fit and ready after a long 317 day break, but trainer William Haggas is in superb form and normally has them ready so gives me confidence to ignore the long absence, she was a winner at 2 over this distance on fast ground like today on a sharp track also like today, Tom Marquand is booked and is in good current form and bagged himself a double in yesterday’s competitive racing, he also has a great partnership with Mr Haggas with a 26% strike rate.

4.25 1m Class 5 Fillies Handicap – Itizzit 6/1

A 9 race maiden, but has a big chance back into handicap company if running anything close to last times out performance where out battled by a smart looking gelding Mokammal who won his next race off 84 and will accessed anywhere around the 90 region, so Itizzit mark of 74 looks very appealing in her first handicap try for trainer Hughie Morrison, she came close to winning on the AW in October beaten by a short neck off a 3lb higher mark for a smaller trainer which also indicates she’s very handicapped, she has a nice pedigree, out of a Galileo dam who won a 1m contest and sire Mukhadram won the Group 1 Eclipse on fast ground.

Russell Blair

28th June betting tips and preview

6.55 1m2f Class 3 Fillies Handicap – Nearooz 13/8

A nice looking filly that won her maiden as a 2yo in October over 7 furlongs last year and returned this season with a big improved run when upped up to a mile even if running green in the early stages to win by over 2 lengths under a 7lb penalty, she was given a mark of 85 for her back to back successes which looked very lenient on the way she won, her progression and still had a Guineas entry at the time, from there she ran in a class 3 at Nottingham and while still running well she lost her unbeaten record when getting outpaced to Layaleena over a mile, not just crying out for further on the day but her pedigree also wants this step up to 1m2f, her sire New Approach was a Derby winner and also a further 2 time Group 1 winner over 1m2f, Nearooz dam was a listed winner over 1m2f and the dams sire Sharmardal also was a Group 1 over 1m2f so everything looks good for today’s step up to a mile and quarter. Today’s competition also a lot more exposed even if most facing a new trip and most not bred for this trip apart from her nearest competition on odds.

Newmarket

7.20 1m5f Class 4 Handicap – Green Etoile 5/4

Very interesting returning him back to the flat after winning on his first start over obstacles and has a great jumps pedigree, but connections clearly think his flat mark of just 68 is there to be taken advantage of and so returns, before his venture over hurdles, he won a class 6 at Salisbury on his handicap debut over a mile and a half, he was very well backed on course and was last well into the straight but stayed on very eye catching to take a big field one by one and even had to switch out a couple of times, he had to use every inch of the trip that day and so today’s step up in trip looks a big plus on that evidence and is only 4lbs higher today. David Probert who rode him for the first time when scoring LTO on the flat is booked again and has a good partnership with Alan King.

9.00 1m2f Class 2 Handicap – Prejudice 15/8

If getting anywhere close to full brother Postponed’s (124) class then Prejudice mark of 86 is very exploitable, he started his career for Luca Cumani and just had the one win to his name when scoring at Redcar off 73 over a mile, he ran well just after at Doncaster with in running troubles and a little outpaced he finished a good close 3rd, he moved to David Simcock the start of the year after Cumani’s retirement and made a good start to his 3yo career for his new trainer, he was ridden very cold by Jamie Spencer and ran a fine race after a long 203 day break in a strong looking race, entitled to come on for that he will eventually look very well handicapped and one to keep onside for the future.

Russell Blair Racing

21st June Ascot tips and preview

2.30 6f Group 3 Fillies Albany – Galadriel 11/1

Very highly tried on debut in a good looking York Listed race with the form working out well, she was the only one in the race without experience, she took a big bump coming out the stalls which left her detached from the pace and around 15 lengths off the front of the pack, she ran green in the early stages which is no surprise for her experience and was still a detached last past the 2 furlong pole, but when the penny dropped coming up to the final furlong she came with a huge run to take most of the field to get to within 5 lengths of the winner Good Vibes which looked pretty spectacular to say the least, from that evidence this step up to 6f will be a big plus and with a better start and running anything like last time she’ll be a big player in this unexposed field.

3.05 1m4f Group 2 King Edward VII – Pondus 9/2

No doubt Japan is the one to beat with his close 3rd in the Derby but just 20 days after that gruelling race maybe this is a bit to soon and at the odds I believe it’s better looking elsewhere. Pondus is certainly the least exposed in the field and time will tell if he can take this step up but visually he looked sensational LTO in a novice at Sandown carrying a 7lb penalty, he was pushed along early to get the lead and set up a fast early gallop that alone would of found out a lot of front runners but not only maintained the quick gallop but pulled away when in the straight with just the one crack of the whip recording a very good time and had the field well strung out with the 2nd 5 lengths back and the rest even further behind, there’s a couple of winners from the race already to boost the form, on that evidence this 1m4f will be a plus along with evidence from the breeding and he didn’t have a tough race so should be in good shape.

3.40 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup – Hello Youmzain 8/1

Ten Sovereigns is interesting back down to sprinting and ran with a lot of respect in the Guineas, he was only half a length away from Skardu who lead the centre group which was clearly the wrong place to be on the day, so that effort needs marking up and now back down to 6f he could be a possible superstar, however I’m not convinced he’ll enjoy today’s ground and at the odds he’s another I couldn’t back with all too much confidence. Hello Youmzain won a strong Group 2 at France last year, he done plenty wrong but still won by a big margin looking at home on soft ground, his seasonal debut wasn’t so hot, but was over 7f and was clearly in need of the run but quickly put that behind him when demolishing a hot field at Haydock back down to 6f and on fast ground not really looking all that comfortable, a run like that makes him a hot contender alone but back on a softer surface he’s even more dangerous.

4.20 1m Group 1 Fillies Coronation – Castle Lady 15/2

Hermosa is another the one to beat but again looks more at home on fast ground and has had a couple of tough races in quick succession and may be a bit vulnerable on softer ground without a good break. Castle Lady made her debut as a 3yo and has already clocked 3 wins, the latest when supplemented for the French Guineas on heavy ground, she was still green and keen but done enough to have her head in front on the line and looked to have plenty more to come and will love today’s conditions.

5.00 1m Class 2 Fillies Sandringham Handicap – I’m Available 16/1

Another who started her career as a 3yo which is always a plus in handicaps like this as they progress more rapidly, she impressed at Kempton to break her duck on her 3rd start and was given a very low mark of 74 which she capitalised on her penultimate race when smashing Kings Girl by 8 lengths who boosted the form when winning her next race, from there she ran over this C&D under a 6lb penalty and looked to of bagged another winner but was caught and out battled late on by the colt Aweedram, back against her own sex here will be a big plus and with all the speed drawn down the centre it looks the place to be and she’ll be involved in it which has been a big plus this year at Ascot.

5.35 1m4f Class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap – Fujaira Prince 6/1

5yo with just 5 runs to his name, so is very unexposed and even more so over this trip with just the one previous try in a hot York Handicap, where he just missed out by a neck, he travelled very well and looked the most likely winner but just out battled, they pulled away from the field and the 5th Caliburn and the 7th Red Galileo both winning strong handicaps since boosting the form.

Russell Blair Racing