29th April betting tips and preview

Newcastle

4.25 1m Class 3 Handicap – Bowerman 15/8

Very strong form to his name from just a few runs, was a head behind multiple Group 1 winner Stradivarius on debut, granted not Stradivarius strongest distance but still a huge run from Bowerman especially considering his rival was more experienced and fit. He returned as a 3yo where he bolted up in a good form race, he was given a mark of 87 and was off the track for 246 days but was fit and ready to again win effortlessly and make his mark look very weak, he was raised 7lbs for that effort. He again was off the track for a long time, this time longer with a huge 489 day break, obviously has issues but at the same time plenty of ability that connections are persevering with him at a big yard is a tip in itself. His return was very pleasing, he was extremely well backed, although missing the break and ridden to get back on terms, he travelled all over his rivals and was coming with a big powerful run before slowing down due to bleeding, he’ll be fitter for the run and if he doesn’t have a repeat issue with bleeding, he should be winning races like this.

Southwell

5.20 1m4f Class 6 Handicap – Loose Chippings 5/2

Ex Irish gelding that was rated 65 for John Murtagh as a 3yo, only a handful of runs until he switched hands to a small yard where he was very poor on both the flat and over obstacles, he dropped to a very low 46 over the 2 years with just the 5 runs to his name on the flat in that time. Looking very well handicapped since switching yards to Ivan Furtado, he went unbacked on his debut at Southwell over 1m6f looking like he’d need a run after 242 days off against race fit rivals, however he broke and travelled extremely well, he looked the winner some way out with the whole field hard at work while he was still comfortably on the bridle, he had his head in front over 2 furlongs out and was locked into battle with well backed Greenview Paradise who just got the better of Loose Chippings on a head bob where it mattered with the rest of the field well behind and spaced out. Only 2 of his rivals have ran since but the winner winning NTO confirming the form and near 9 lengths away 4th nearly won NTO giving the race a good look. LC should of come on for the run, drops back in trip which looks fine and even though up 6lbs, not only on evidence of last run but on past form his mark of 52 is still very exploitable.

Windsor

6.30 1m2f Class 4 Handicap – Just Brilliant 2/1

Very lightly raced 4yo who won a strong novice on his debut beating Silver Quartz who was rated 98 not too long after and won a class 2 off 97. Just Brilliant went for a crack at the Craven where looking outclassed and well beat by the Derby winner Masar. He was then off the track for 349 days and returned the beginning of the month in a novice at Kempton, he had a bad draw to contend with and was caught outpaced and probably outclassed by now rated 97 Canvassed who looks a group horse in the making, however JB still pleased with a remote 2nd in a strung out field, he’ll come on for the run and his mark of 81 is very exploitable in his first Handicap on form and the extra trip also looks like it’ll bring out plenty of improvement visually and on pedigree, the colt also holds an entry for the group 1 lockinge which is signs the yard feel he’s a lot better than a race like this.

Russell Blair

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