Author: Russell Blair

Ayr

2.30 1m2f Class 4 Handicap – Cockalorum 9/4

Went into the notebook after a big display LTO, he had a horrible draw in 15 at York which was made worse with the field jumping just as well as he did which left him keen while jockey Paul Hanagan doing his best to drop the horse in but with no luck left him one of the widest in the big field, that would of blown most horses chances and as a result you’ll typically see them back out of their races quickly, but he stayed on in incredible fashion down the slowest part of the track that day to finish 4th under a soft ride close home from Hanagan. The whole performance needs marking up in a competitive race and this is a easier race all around, also today he gets a nice step up in trip which not only a good move on his last display but also is perfect on breeding, he’s very lightly raced and has just the 2 runs in handicap company and for his new trainer Roger Fell so is very unexposed and his mark of 79 looks highly exploitable. Trainer is in fantastic form and has a big chance of a treble today from his 3 chances (Cockalorum, Harome & Global Spirit), he has a good record at Ayr with a positive level stake profit and books Ben Curtiswho himself is in great current form and share a great partnership with a 20% strike rate and a excellent +£62.38 LSP.

4.10 1m Class 3 Handicap – Smile A Mile 4/1

Has a great pedigree and was having a great season after being gelded over the winter, he’s 2 from 4 this season the last win coming in a good class 4 at Haydock where they went a good early clip, he was involved in the early pace and still powered home comfortably to win by over 2 lengths, the 2nd Jaleel boosted the form when winning a better race at Newmarket NTO, from there he went up 6lb which was far from excessive for a dominant display plus his progressiveness, but he ran ran well below par NTO at Pontefract, he’s turned out again quickly which is a good sign and trainer Mark Johnston is well renowned for getting his chances to bounce back quickly, he’s in excellent form with a 32% strike rate the last 2 weeks and hit a 4 timer yesterday from feast of rides, he books Franny Norton who himself is in excellent form with a 33% strike rate the last fortnight and was on 3 of Mark Johnston’s winners yesterday.

4.40 7f Class 5 Handicap – Global Spirit 9/4

Another Roger Fell chance and was another that went into the notebook after last display which I’ll come back to later, the gelding moved to Roger Fell earlier this year after a unsuccessful early career with Ed Dunlop being a 13 race maiden, he nearly won on trainer debut off a mark 64 over 6 furlongs just beaten by a neck looking like further would of suited more, either way he went up 3lbs and won easily NTO again over 6f, another 2 good runs later on 6f again crying out for further he got his wish when upped to 7f LTO at Haydock where he ran a career best when runner up and not having a clear run at a crucial point, he’s turned out quickly and so doesn’t get a hike from the handicapper also cheek pieces are fitted for the first time under Roger Fell which look a good move to keep him focused early on in his races which he does seem to have concentration problems.

Russell Blair

1.50 5f Group 3 Coral Charge – Caspian Prince 7/1

The oldest competitor in the field at the age of 10 who won the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes at Curragh beating double Group 1 winning Marsha 2 years back proving top form at the time, just the 2 wins to his name since which he recorded in good competitive handicaps off big weights last season certainly proving to retain his ability. Not the best of starts this season when a not beating a rival in a tough Group 2 Temple Stakes, but arguably not ready after a long break, he put that behind him when a solid run in a competitive Dash at Epsom where setting up a fast early gallop which would of been tough for anyone to maintain but to try and do it from the highest weight of the race off 10 stone is near impossible, so the performance needs marking up considerably and Group company looks more fitting off his current mark, so looks perfectly placed in a race like this where he’ll also enjoy a slower tempo and should get his own way of things upfront and dictate on ground in his favour. Michael Appleby doesn’t travel to Sandown often and sends just the one there today so obviously aimed for this and the horse is yet to run here but course is very similar to Curragh so should be perfect and he has a nice draw with the higher stalls having more pace, also significantly Oisin Murphy is booked for the first time, yet to ride on the horse but is a big jockey upswing, is having a blinding season and has a great record when teaming up with Mr Appleby.

2.25 1m Class 2 Challenge Handicap – Escobar 11/1

A great race to look forward to and one that looks overpriced is Escobar, just the one win to his name last season for at the time his new trainer David O’Meara, from there he ran in this race where he ran a solid 2nd off the 2nd highest weight in the race off 102, the race wasn’t ran to suit when held up and nothing coming from off the pace that day making that performance very eye catching and a big mark up, he finished the season up and down and added another couple of big places in big handicaps showing there’s a big win in him in the right race. He hasn’t been in the best of form this season in his 3 shows but as a result he’s dropped down to a good mark, 4lbs lower than his tilt in this race last year but the biggest thing that took the eye was the booking of Andrea Atzeni which is a big sign of intent, he’s yet to ride the gelding before and you hardly see David O’Meara reach out for Andrea whose having a brilliant season and is in top current form and rides Sandown well.

3.35 1m2f Group 1 Eclipse – Magical 3/1

Ok hard to back against the best filly that I’ve ever seen, double Arc winner and 7 time Group 1 winner Enable whose class may see her in front on the line, but is her first race for 8 months and trainer John Gosden has stated although happy with her, he feels she’ll come on for the run, also all her Group 1 victories have come over a mile four furlongs, so while she has the speed for this drop in trip, she may fare better over further where she’s a natural plus her only loss has come on fast ground like today and certainly shapes better on softer ground, which makes perfect sence to look elsewhere from a heavy heart. Look no further than Magical that’s in terrific form she’s won her first 3 races this season before a solid 2nd at Royal Ascot in the Prince Of Wales, although she goes on soft ground she found it tough to pick up on the and ground to catch Crystal Ocean but still ran with plenty of credit and for me was still the best horse in the race if they ran on a more sounder surface, she faced Enable last season in the Breeders Cup Turf where she just lost out by under a length, she did cover less ground than Enable that day, so had no excuses and rightly beat, but that was over 1m4f and Magical has found her niche this season over 10f’s and has race fitness and ground onside so for me looks set to break Enables winning streak.

Russell Blair

Hamilton

2.45 Class 6 Handicap – Brutalab 9/2

A 5 race maiden that started his race career as a 3yo this season, he’s shaped very well in his last 2 handicaps both placing 3rd, the latest in a 0-70 at Carlisle over a 1m3f trip, he travelled superbly well and hit the front 2 out but couldn’t keep up the gallop and was taken close home, while a drop to a mile maybe not his optimum, I believe a testing 9f or sharp 10f ideal for him but either way this testing 8f not far off and will certainly help him build on his last effort, also this is a much easier 0-60 race and David Allan takes over the reins and is by far a better jockey than Rachel Richardson who was on the last twice, he also rides Hamilton well with a nice 20% strike rate the last 5 years.

4.15 1m Class 2 Handicap – Coolagh Forest 5/1

Won a 3yo class 2 handicap at Musselburgh in April with the form very hot with the 4th winning a strong class 2 NTO, and the 5th, 6th and 7th also winning since, from there he went up 4lbs and raced against his elders in a class 4 again at Musselburgh, not only winning but smashing his rivals when the gap opened up for him, he powered away under hands and heels and was eased down but still won by 6 lengths looking like potentially a black type contender, he’s hit by a huge 12lbs rise in the weights but is helped by Sean Davies 3lb claim who is worth it and in great current form with a 7956/1 hat trick yesterday.

Brighton

5.00 5f Class 5 Handicap – Essaka 10/3

Trainer Tony Carroll is in great current form and is on course to have his best season to date, his best chance of a winner comes from this gelding whose won at Brighton 3 times in the past, the most recent when bolting up by 4 lengths last month he ran again twice since and was a little unlucky not to catch the King Crimson who had a easy lead and made all, Essaka travelled very well and looked to have another win up his sleeve, he does go up another 2lb and jockey Sophie Ralston loses 2lbs of her claim which isn’t ideal but running anything like last time he has big claims.

Russell Blair

Pontefract

2.00 6f Class 5 Handicap – Round The Island 16/1

Hasn’t looked in the best of form this season but scratching beneath the surface, it doesn’t look as bad as it seems, in his career he’s yet to win at any trip apart from his optimum 6 furlongs, from his 5 runs this season, he’s only had 2 runs at 6 and one of those was in a class 4 where he also hasn’t been successful in any class above 5 in his career, so that leaves him with just the one run this year at his optimum conditions and even in that he was better than the bare form reads, he was slow away which is a trait but as a result he was caught wide and covered more ground than anyone, plus on soft ground is even more of a disadvantage, the race wasn’t run to suit and was given an easy ride when his path was cut into the straight, so it’s easy to put a line through that effort last month. Today there’s a lot in favour for this gelding to turn things around, his record over this C&D in class 5 or less company reads 61414118, he’s a huge 10lbs under his last last winning mark he recorded here in September and the pace of the race is ideal with plenty of early speed with John Clare, Tricky Dicky, Scuzeme and Gullane One all likely to set up and frantic race and set it up for a closer like Round The Island.

2.30 6f Class 2 Conditions – Toro Strike 9/2

Easily the best bred colt in the field, no doubt bred for a mile but at this point in his career the 6f looks ideal, his sire Toronado won over 6f as a 2yo before becoming a double Group 1 winner at a mile which included the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, the dam herself was smart and won a Group 3 over a mile in America and was also a runner up in a Group 1 and a halfsister to Group 1 winners Visionaire & Tara’s Tango, also the dams sire Smart Strike sired superstar Curlin who notched up 7 Group 1 victories, so a pedigree to certainly get excited over. Toro Strike scored when last seen in a maiden at Thirsk which doesn’t look the strongest of races and he had to work hard to get the victory but with his potential and the plus of a more testing track I predict he could again be hard to pass. Trainer Richard Fahey has won this race in the past and has a good record at the course and a small positive level stake profit.

Windsor

7.45 6f Class 2 Handicap – Ice Age 5/1

Record over this C&D reads 41334111 the latest was in this race last year off a mark of 103, while not totally disgraced, he’s yet to win since but the majority has been in some tough races of tough marks, he’s been slipping down the handicap this year and nearly took advantage off this mark in a competitive Directors Cup Handicap at Ripon last month, he was first of his group of those that ran stands side but was beaten by Hyperfocus by a short head who raced far side, the form has been boosted with the 3rd and 4th both 1st and 2nd in a strong York class 2 handicap since and plus other winners have come out the race since that was further back. Ice Age has ridden again since but not just a bad start but also over a sharp 5 furlongs clearly not suiting and can be forgiven, today’s return to 6 furlongs is perfect along with ground conditions and he’s a healthy 6lbs lighter than last years success from a similar draw, there’s also a distinct lack of pace also which will be a big benefit for the usual front runner.

Russell Blair

Cartmel

2.35 2m1f Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – Project Bluebook 3/1

Hasn’t won for over 2 years but only 7 runs over hurdles to his name in that time and all in tougher races and hasn’t been disgraced in most, he took the eye on his 2nd start of the season in a strong competitive Swinton at Haydock, he clearly loved the drying ground and his performance needs marking up lots when looking well beat, wandering a little and bumped a couple of times but came home very powerfully and was gaining on the winner all the way to the line to miss out by under a length, today he returns to a easier class 2 race and will love the ground, he may find top weight a little tough and hasn’t rode with a weight as much as this on his back in the past,  while looking the one to beat still it is a concern.

Windsor

3.15 5f Class 3 Handicap – Swiss Air 2/1

Nicely bred, full sister to multiple listed winner Swiss Dream rated as high as 107, also half sister Swiss Diva a double Group 3 winner rated 116 and half brother Swiss Spirit also a Group 3 winner rated as high as 116, so selection Swiss Air rating of 80 is very exploitable providing she’s fit and ready after a long 317 day break, but trainer William Haggas is in superb form and normally has them ready so gives me confidence to ignore the long absence, she was a winner at 2 over this distance on fast ground like today on a sharp track also like today, Tom Marquand is booked and is in good current form and bagged himself a double in yesterday’s competitive racing, he also has a great partnership with Mr Haggas with a 26% strike rate.

4.25 1m Class 5 Fillies Handicap – Itizzit 6/1

A 9 race maiden, but has a big chance back into handicap company if running anything close to last times out performance where out battled by a smart looking gelding Mokammal who won his next race off 84 and will accessed anywhere around the 90 region, so Itizzit mark of 74 looks very appealing in her first handicap try for trainer Hughie Morrison, she came close to winning on the AW in October beaten by a short neck off a 3lb higher mark for a smaller trainer which also indicates she’s very handicapped, she has a nice pedigree, out of a Galileo dam who won a 1m contest and sire Mukhadram won the Group 1 Eclipse on fast ground.

Russell Blair

6.55 1m2f Class 3 Fillies Handicap – Nearooz 13/8

A nice looking filly that won her maiden as a 2yo in October over 7 furlongs last year and returned this season with a big improved run when upped up to a mile even if running green in the early stages to win by over 2 lengths under a 7lb penalty, she was given a mark of 85 for her back to back successes which looked very lenient on the way she won, her progression and still had a Guineas entry at the time, from there she ran in a class 3 at Nottingham and while still running well she lost her unbeaten record when getting outpaced to Layaleena over a mile, not just crying out for further on the day but her pedigree also wants this step up to 1m2f, her sire New Approach was a Derby winner and also a further 2 time Group 1 winner over 1m2f, Nearooz dam was a listed winner over 1m2f and the dams sire Sharmardal also was a Group 1 over 1m2f so everything looks good for today’s step up to a mile and quarter. Today’s competition also a lot more exposed even if most facing a new trip and most not bred for this trip apart from her nearest competition on odds.

Newmarket

7.20 1m5f Class 4 Handicap – Green Etoile 5/4

Very interesting returning him back to the flat after winning on his first start over obstacles and has a great jumps pedigree, but connections clearly think his flat mark of just 68 is there to be taken advantage of and so returns, before his venture over hurdles, he won a class 6 at Salisbury on his handicap debut over a mile and a half, he was very well backed on course and was last well into the straight but stayed on very eye catching to take a big field one by one and even had to switch out a couple of times, he had to use every inch of the trip that day and so today’s step up in trip looks a big plus on that evidence and is only 4lbs higher today. David Probert who rode him for the first time when scoring LTO on the flat is booked again and has a good partnership with Alan King.

9.00 1m2f Class 2 Handicap – Prejudice 15/8

If getting anywhere close to full brother Postponed’s (124) class then Prejudice mark of 86 is very exploitable, he started his career for Luca Cumani and just had the one win to his name when scoring at Redcar off 73 over a mile, he ran well just after at Doncaster with in running troubles and a little outpaced he finished a good close 3rd, he moved to David Simcock the start of the year after Cumani’s retirement and made a good start to his 3yo career for his new trainer, he was ridden very cold by Jamie Spencer and ran a fine race after a long 203 day break in a strong looking race, entitled to come on for that he will eventually look very well handicapped and one to keep onside for the future.

Russell Blair Racing

2.30 6f Group 3 Fillies Albany – Galadriel 11/1

Very highly tried on debut in a good looking York Listed race with the form working out well, she was the only one in the race without experience, she took a big bump coming out the stalls which left her detached from the pace and around 15 lengths off the front of the pack, she ran green in the early stages which is no surprise for her experience and was still a detached last past the 2 furlong pole, but when the penny dropped coming up to the final furlong she came with a huge run to take most of the field to get to within 5 lengths of the winner Good Vibes which looked pretty spectacular to say the least, from that evidence this step up to 6f will be a big plus and with a better start and running anything like last time she’ll be a big player in this unexposed field.

3.05 1m4f Group 2 King Edward VII – Pondus 9/2

No doubt Japan is the one to beat with his close 3rd in the Derby but just 20 days after that gruelling race maybe this is a bit to soon and at the odds I believe it’s better looking elsewhere. Pondus is certainly the least exposed in the field and time will tell if he can take this step up but visually he looked sensational LTO in a novice at Sandown carrying a 7lb penalty, he was pushed along early to get the lead and set up a fast early gallop that alone would of found out a lot of front runners but not only maintained the quick gallop but pulled away when in the straight with just the one crack of the whip recording a very good time and had the field well strung out with the 2nd 5 lengths back and the rest even further behind, there’s a couple of winners from the race already to boost the form, on that evidence this 1m4f will be a plus along with evidence from the breeding and he didn’t have a tough race so should be in good shape.

3.40 6f Group 1 Commonwealth Cup – Hello Youmzain 8/1

Ten Sovereigns is interesting back down to sprinting and ran with a lot of respect in the Guineas, he was only half a length away from Skardu who lead the centre group which was clearly the wrong place to be on the day, so that effort needs marking up and now back down to 6f he could be a possible superstar, however I’m not convinced he’ll enjoy today’s ground and at the odds he’s another I couldn’t back with all too much confidence. Hello Youmzain won a strong Group 2 at France last year, he done plenty wrong but still won by a big margin looking at home on soft ground, his seasonal debut wasn’t so hot, but was over 7f and was clearly in need of the run but quickly put that behind him when demolishing a hot field at Haydock back down to 6f and on fast ground not really looking all that comfortable, a run like that makes him a hot contender alone but back on a softer surface he’s even more dangerous.

4.20 1m Group 1 Fillies Coronation – Castle Lady 15/2

Hermosa is another the one to beat but again looks more at home on fast ground and has had a couple of tough races in quick succession and may be a bit vulnerable on softer ground without a good break. Castle Lady made her debut as a 3yo and has already clocked 3 wins, the latest when supplemented for the French Guineas on heavy ground, she was still green and keen but done enough to have her head in front on the line and looked to have plenty more to come and will love today’s conditions.

5.00 1m Class 2 Fillies Sandringham Handicap – I’m Available 16/1

Another who started her career as a 3yo which is always a plus in handicaps like this as they progress more rapidly, she impressed at Kempton to break her duck on her 3rd start and was given a very low mark of 74 which she capitalised on her penultimate race when smashing Kings Girl by 8 lengths who boosted the form when winning her next race, from there she ran over this C&D under a 6lb penalty and looked to of bagged another winner but was caught and out battled late on by the colt Aweedram, back against her own sex here will be a big plus and with all the speed drawn down the centre it looks the place to be and she’ll be involved in it which has been a big plus this year at Ascot.

5.35 1m4f Class 2 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap – Fujaira Prince 6/1

5yo with just 5 runs to his name, so is very unexposed and even more so over this trip with just the one previous try in a hot York Handicap, where he just missed out by a neck, he travelled very well and looked the most likely winner but just out battled, they pulled away from the field and the 5th Caliburn and the 7th Red Galileo both winning strong handicaps since boosting the form.

Russell Blair Racing

2.30 5f Group 2 Fillies Queen Mary – Final Song 11/2

Very impressive when winning on debut over C&D on soft ground, she beat a very well thought of and well backed Star Alexander back in 3rd by over 5 lengths who boosted the form when scoring by 5 lengths herself NTO. The ground yesterday was riding quick which did deteriorate as the day went on mainly around the round course but the straight track still looks in good nick and should still be clocking good clock figures before the predicted rain comes later in the day and on breeding the filly will appreciate quicker a ground, daughter of Dark Angel whose wins came on good or quicker ground and won the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, also her dam’s only win came on fast ground and progeny mainly prefer quicker ground so today’s conditions should see further improvement IMO and even if the rain does come a little earlier and is sticky then she’s already proven on soft already. Main concern is the draw, yesterday over the straight course the winners came from stalls 1,3,1 and although Ascot is a very tricky course to read and changes regularly, her stall of 23 does raise a little concern but there does look a little more speed drawn high and will likely want to dictate things herself. Trainer SBS have started to wind things up and coming into form and has a good level stake profit at Ascot, he books star jockey Soumillon who may not have the best Ascot record but is a excellent jockey with a great judge of pace.

3.05 1m6f Group 2 Queen’s Vase – Dashing Willoughby 9/1

Norway brings in the best form with his distant 2nd in the Chester Cup and 8th in the Derby which needs marking up a little with being involved in a quick early tempo and was eased when beaten. One with close form is Dashing Willoughby who finished just three quarters of a length off Norway in the Chester Vase after not only setting a decent early gallop but went for home too far out which would of been a good move if worked but left him a sitting target and was outclassed by Sir Dragonet and also Norway came past our tired selection close home. A sensibler ride from the bang inform Oisin Murphy should see a better showing, he’s had a healthy break too which brings him fit and ready, he also has plenty of stamina in the breeding and a great Ascot pedigree, a son of Nathaniel who won the King George over 1m4f at Royal Ascot and has a great start to his stud career with farther to Enable and the dams sire Dylan Thomas whose also a King George winner and has sired plenty of stayers.

3.40 1m2f Group 1 Prince Of Wales – Magical 13/8

A quality race to get excited over, Zabeel Prince a lightly raced 6yo is progressive and picked up a Group 1 LTO, he goes on any ground and the extra furlong looks a good move visually, may find one or two too good here but still overpriced IMO, Sea Of Class has obvious claims on 3yo form but I would of liked to of seen her this season and may be in need of a run, especially before a hot race as such as this. Waldgeist will love any rain that comes and the round course is riding slower than the straight track which is a plus, a solid form contender with 3 Group 1’s to his name but has always been found out against stiff competition and looks better suited to over further, but always runs well and will be thereabouts no doubt. Crystal Ocean is probably the lay of the race, no doubt has the quality but the tacky round course will be against and also looks better going further, plus even thou she gets the services of the excellent Frankie Dettori, it’s the first time his ridden her and is a slight negative. Magical has found her niche over 10f this season, she’s 3 from 3 at this distance, all recorded this year, the last was super impressive on fast ground at the Curragh beating Irish St Ledger winner Flag Of Honour by 7 lengths practically on the bridle, she’s a Ascot winner when beating Coronet in the Champion Fillies and Mares in October before a excellent 2nd behind superstar Enable in the Breeders Cup Turf and looks to of improved bundles this season and is proven on any ground.

4.20 1m Group 2 Fillies Duke Of Cambridge – I Can Fly – 7/2

If yesterday was anything was to go by then then drawn far side is the place to be and I Can Fly will get a nice toe into the race drawn right beside Pretty Baby, She’s already a Group 2 winner when scoring at Leopardstown in the Boomerang Stakes in September and is a Group 1 runner up over this course and distance when 2nd to Roaring Lion in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in October, that form is head and shoulders above these but she does carry a 3lb for her Group 2 win which isn’t ideal. She’s been coming into form this season well with 6th in the Lockinge after missing the start, she then followed up with another good run at the Curragh, well off the pace with a lot to do and giving the made all winner a very easy lead but finished very well and got closer than you would of thought possible after looking well beat around 2 furlongs out. Better positioned in this and a finish like last time will see her very dangerous at Ascot.

5.00 1m Class 2 Royal Hunt Cup Handicap – What’s The Story 14/1

There isn’t much pace in The Royal Hunt Cup this year and if there was any bar Zhui Feng who used to be a speed merchant from stall 14 then all the pace is drawn stall 19+ and looks the side to be in this as it has many times in the past. What’s the Story was a solid 4th in this race last year as a colt, he broke well, settled and shaped well and came with a strong run running into a little trouble getting nudged about which didn’t help, he looked to have his head in front at one point but ran about like a typical colt but still a respectful 2 and a half lengths away from the winner, he was tried over further since and wasn’t seen in the same light, as a result he was gelded over the winter which will be a huge plus, he ran a solid race on seasonal debut over a sharp 7 furlongs meeting trouble but came on plenty for that race when winning a good strong York handicap very well when last seen from a bad draw to record a career best, only up 4lb for that and only 2lb higher than lasts year tilt and improved since and more likely still to come, the ground will probably start to be a little on the muddy side if the rain comes as predicted by now, but he has won on soft before, so I wouldn’t be to concerned even if I would prefer faster conditions.

5.35 5f Listed Windsor Castle – Rayong 16/1

Hard to predict the pace in this for the lack of experience but it does look pretty frantic with most of the field taking up front running tactics prior and most of it coming from higher draws. Rayong comes out of stall 14 so has the option to go far side or stand side which is more likely, he really took the eye on debut, he slightly missed the break which from a high draw at Carlisle which can be disastrous, he stayed 4 wide through the race covering plenty of ground and drifted in the straight but still won with plenty in hand beating experienced rivals with the form pretty sound. On top of this being a son of Mayson who was a Group 1 winning sprinter on heavy ground he’ll enjoy the deteriorating ground and could bring further improvement than the fast ground he encountered LTO.

Russell Blair Racing

Nottingham

3.15 6f Class 3 Handicap – Royal Residence 15/8

Generally a consistent colt that loves cut in the ground, he won very well on good to soft at Carlisle in August before a big run in the Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap where finishing 2nd in heavy ground without a clear run hinting his very well handicapped, he returned this season still in good form and shaped better than his results, his latest effort was a tad disappointing when just missing out on a win by a neck after awkwardly hanging blowing his chances, but the winner Buridan who is clearly very well handicapped and they was well clear of the rest of the field, his due to go up 3lb for that close 2nd but escapes that here which leaves him looking well in and although slightly up in class, he isn’t facing competition like Buridan here. Trainer James Tate is in great form with 4 winners in the last 2 weeks all with today’s jockey, a great 4 winners from 10 runners teamed up, trainer sends just the one out today and has a good record at the course with a positive career level stake profit which is even better the past 5 seasons, he has a exceptionally partnership with jockey P J McDonald with 19 winners from 54 rides, 35% strike rate with a +£27.75 LSP and P J is in great current confident form himself.

Newbury

3.35 1m Class 4 Handicap – Leader Writer 11/4

Hasn’t won for 21 months, but with a few big breaks and stints over obstacles, he’s only had 9 runs on the flat mainly in some hot races, he recently switched yards from Henry Spiller to David Elsworth which although David isn’t in the best of forms this season, it’s still a big trainer upswing. The horse has had the one run for his new connections which was very encouraging in the lowest grade his faced to date, he was very well handicapped, being 9lbs under his last winning mark, he started from a bad draw and had to settle for a bad position at the back well off the pace but when into the straight he was very eye catching threading his way through the field with an obstructed run, without a doubt the best horse in the field and would of won easily with a better draw or clear run. Today the straight track will be a big plus, the ground is perfect and Ryan Moore is booked which is significant, they’ve only teamed up 30 times the last 5 years and have 8 winners, a cool 30% strike rate and nice +£10.78, trainer David has just the one ride to concentrate on too which is also significant.

4.10 7f Class 5 Handicap – Stormbomber 10/3

Has a good soft ground pedigree and has shown good promise in his 3 runs, the latest he blew the start but shaped and finished well over a sharp 6f, the handicap mark of 66 is very appealing on breeding and now upped in trip, on his ground he could look stupidly well handicapped against a more exposed field, I would of preferred a higher draw to more confident as most of the pace is higher, but still one watch and keep onside when the ground is testing like today.

Russell Blair Racing