23rd July betting tips and insights


4.15 7f Class 4 Handicap – Engrossed 10/3

Won a good novice event over C&D in December beating Regal Banner rated 72 and a very well bred Clerisy back in 3rd now rated 85, Engrossed got a mark of 72 after a below par run under a penalty at Kempton NTO, she nearly took advantage of what looked a very lenient mark in her first handicap race again back over this C&D. LTO, she was very unfortunate that day and had to cover a lot of ground coming widest of all to try and catch the winner that had the run of the race, with not a lot coming from off the pace showed how hard it was that day also to mark up Engrossed effort somewhat. She even took a nice boost with the 3rd Molly Mai over a length away winning NTO, plus Symphony back in 4th winning since and further behind have gone close since also giving the form a nice look. Engrossed is raised 3lbs for that effort which on her last effort is very fair, she’s entered against her elders today which leaves her looking very unexposed against this weak exposed field and gets the services of top jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time who won this race last year, he’s having a fine season and has a great set of rides today at a course he thrives at, he’s already notched up 13 winners here this season from 52 runs, a cool 25% strike rate, so would be no surprise to see him come away with a few wins today.


6.20 6f Class 2 Handicap – Intuitive 2/1

Clearly loves the polytrack with 2 wins from 3 attempts and was unlucky not to make that a perfect 3 from 3 when just just beat by half a length over this C&D, he was caught in a little bit of a barging match early and when the pace picked up he was caught in a little bit of a pocket, so his close loss can go down as very unfortunate, he’s raised a lb for that while the winner Alkaraama is raised 3lbs, so not only more luck in running enough to reverse the form but is also weighted to get the better of Alkarrama today and both up against a more exposed field a big plus. Intuitive also gets a jockey boost with De Sousa taking the reigns for the first time, he loves Chelmsford and is currently on a 26% strike rate this season here, trainer James Tate doesn’t use the jockey often and is the first time this season he’s reached out for Silvestre which is significant, James is having a excellent season to date with 45 winners, a 26% strike rate with a positive level stake profit and an even better 31% strike rate the last 2 weeks, he’s had 6 winners at Chelmsford this year from 19 tries (32% strike rate) with a +£13.13 LSP.

8.20 7f Class 4 Handicap – Chatham House 9/4

A very weak race that won’t take much winning and Chatham House gets the services of top jockey Ryan Moore for the first time is very eye catching, the gelding is a 9 race maiden but has just the 2 runs to his name in handicap company, the latest taking the eye from a bad draw at Chester, he had a lot to do when turning into the straight at Chester with a notorious short run in so the odds was stacked well against him but clearly the best horse in the field that day he done remarkable to get as close as he did (4th) with the form taking a good boost with the 2nd Harvey Dent winning NTO, Chatham looked a clear winner in waiting after that performance and will prefer a fairer track like Chelmsford, plus as mentioned gets the services of Ryan Moore will be a big plus and is in good current form and there is no better jockey at Chelmsford with a fantastic 36% career strike rate at the course with a +£51 LSP to boot.

Russell Blair Racing

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