1.50 7f Oak Tree Stakes Group 3 Fillies & Mares – Solar Gold 20/1
Now sits in the highest stall of the field which on past races is a negative as all winners have been from lower than 10 in the last 10 years, however Solar Gold is a hold up horse and will benefit from when dropping in and not getting boxed in like you do from a low draw and with so much pace in this field will also be a big benefit for hold up horses like ours. Yet to win for William Haggas since the switch from Charlie Hills the end of last season, but ran 3 excellent races in defeat, twice in listed races then her last when 2nd in a very competitive Bunbury Cup where she finished in front of her group on the stands side but was only beat by one on the far side which looked clearly the best part of the track, if building on that performance again, like she has in each of her runs for William she’ll be in with a excellent chance if getting a lot of luck in running. Mr Haggas has had a brilliant season to date and is close to his best season overall, he had the winner in this race last year Pretty Baby who lines up again and has a good chance even if a little negated by a high draw for a usual front runner and a under a penalty. Tom Marquand takes the reigns on ours who has established himself as a top professional jockey already and clearly improving under the eye, he has a excellent +£54.80 level stake profit following every ride of his blind this season and broke his Group winning duck earlier this season.
3.00 1m Class 2 Handicap – Key Victory 40/1
My first choice of the race is Seniority who won a better renewal of this race last year under Ryan Moore whose won this race the last 3 years, he was 3lb better off last year but didn’t have the clearest of runs but travelled and won well in the end, he hasn’t been in the best of form this season but hasn’t had the best choice in races and yet to run on his favoured fast surface, he looks aimed at this race and with Ryan back onboard gives more clues of their intentions. All that being said one that looks a huge price and in with a shout is Key Victory, he won on debut as a 2yo and followed up in his 3yo campaign beating Old Persian in a good Listed race at Newmarket with Old Persian going on to pick up 2 Group 2’s and a Group 1 at Meydan. Key Victory career however went the opposite way since, he ran a good race in a Group 1 in France but declined on his venture in Meydan which prompted a gelding operation, he improved a little at Royal Ascot and was better than the bare result states and improved again when a good 4th when last seen early last month in a competitive Coral Challenge with the 2nd Escobar whose current 2nd fav for this race winning very easily NTO at York and now 6lbs higher, not only weighted to get the better of Escobar in this race but looks to be improving since his gelding operation and getting back to his best. Trainer Charlie Appleby is having a blinding season with a current 30% strike rate, his best yet, he places his chances no better for me and again books James Doyle who he has a excellent partnership with a 25% career strike rate which is a little better this season with a 27% strike rate.
4.10 6f Nursery Handicap – Owney Madden 8/1
Really impressed LTO when dropped in trip to 6f, he didn’t get the best of starts which wasn’t helped when taken right by a competitor early on, he ran green but with all against him early on he powered home under a couple of taps of the whip to win with plenty in hand visually, entitled to come on plenty for that, his mark of 81 looks very exploitable. I’m a little concerned on the ground today, when winning there was plenty of juice in the ground and he looked at home on it in the finish plus on the dams side the family, they relish on soft ground, so with the ground drying out at Goodwood very quickly and likely to have fast in the description at this time in the day it is a worry, but his sire Oasis Dream was a fast ground specialist which does give hope and is worth the risk for me.
Russell Blair Racing