3.20 1m1f Dubai Turf Group 1 – Almond Eye no bet / VIVLOS 20/1 ew
Very excited to see ALMOND EYE take on her foreign rivals, she’s looked nothing short of sensational when winning the Triple Tiara which is the Group 1 Guineas, Oaks and Shuka Sho, not that she had to, but she proved her class against the opposite sex and elders when not only winning the very strong Japan Cup, but she smashed the course record in doing so, she had a nice sex and age allowance (9lbs) but she oozed class and would of won even losing one of her mandatory deserved claims. If you had to pick holes with her then she comes here after a lengthy 125 break, but proved she runs very well fresh and she’s dropped 3 furlongs from 1m4f which did look her best, but again showed she has plenty of speed to cope with a sharp trip, she’s the star quality of the field and for me Japans biggest hope for the Arc later in the year, hopefully after this race, she isn’t too highly tried and is saved for what looks a future fantastic battle against superstar Enable.
Her biggest danger is from last year’s winning trainer Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dream Castle who has been a different force since his gelding operation, he completed his hattrick when beating highly thought of Wooton, he showed he has much more than his Godolphin rival and clearly looks the best of the rest, would be a strong play if it wasn’t for the presence of Almond Eye.
The best each way play of the race for me is VIVLOS, she won this 2 years ago beating Heslam and multi Group 1 winning Ribchester. She returned to defend her crown last year where she was left with too much to do in a race that wasn’t run to suit, however she finished very well to claim 2nd behind Benbatl. When last seen she was up against it in a very tough Hong Kong Mile finishing behind superstar Beauty Generation showing very strong form, she doesn’t have a prep for this which is a little of a worry, but still strong place claims all the same.
4.00 1m4f Sheema Classic Group 1 – Rey De Oro 3/1 / Cheval Grand 14/1 ew
There looks a weak fav in this race with Old Persian, he beat stablemate and Gold Cup fav Cross Counter in the Great Voltigeur last year before being smashed in the in the St Ledger, he made a winning return over this C&D earlier this month in the City Of Gold, he raced keen and showed quirks, he done a fantastic job thou to get up to win, but that was a weak prep for me and his odds are to be taken on.
REY DE ORO form looks far superior IMO, he was a Japanese Derby winner, and runner up in the Japan Cup at the age of 3, he ran in this race last year but was below par and jockey gave him a lot to do in a race not run to suit, since then he’s improved and matured well and won the Tenno Sho in fine style before a crack at the prestigious Arima Kinen when an unlucky 2nd just missing out on the big prize by a neck, if running up to that form here, he should win this.
Magic Wand needs respect, she beat wild Illusion in the Ribblesdale last year and since has run some big races in good company, she is however that little bit inconsistent and hard to catch right, no doubt has a run in her thou.
CHEVAL GRAND is the each way play, 7 year olds haven’t got a good record in this race, but not only did he deny RDO in the previous mentioned Japan Cup, he was also the eye catcher of the Arima Kinen and just finished a length away. His sire Heart’s Cry won this race in 2006 and his sister Vivlos won the Dubai Turf on this card 2 years ago.
4.40 1m2f World Cup Group 1 – Gunnevera 14/1
Right the big race on the day and normally the biggest disappointment when getting unexpected results, we’ve only had 2 winning favs, which I’m all for taking on weak favs, but we’ve seen some very high class form lose to weak form opponents, we’ve had 6 double digit odds winners in the last 10 years, the severe kick back being the biggest culprit IMO, any way last years winner Thunder Snow lines back up to defend his crown, since his win, he had some decent runs in defeat in good races, his return over this C&D earlier this month was very disappointing when a 9 length loser to Capezzano, he was also stuffed in that race last year thou and went on to win this, so no surprises to see him come to life in this again but not for me.
North America has been in fine form, he was well fancied for this race last year but missed the break and hated the kickback and came last overall, he’s returned again in top form and has a strong play from a good draw, but if he does miss the break slightly and is behind a couple of horses coming to the first bend, he should again hate the kickback and at his odds, or if he does break well, he’ll likely get caught in the predicted early frantic pace.
Capezzeno as previously mentioned hammered last years winner Thunder Snow in the 3rd round of the Al Maktoum, he’s been a different force in the hood and won his last 3 races impressively, this will be a different test altogether and won’t get his own way upfront and has been temperamental in the past and likely to be lit up when taken on and blow up in the latter stages.
So, with a predicted pace meltdown my dart has landed on GUNNEVERA, disappointed in this race last year, but big excuses with suffering with Colic on the plane, a bruised foot and a cut leg, but still a respectful 12 length 8th considering. He returned to form winning a weak race well NTO, before a crack at Group 1 Woodward as fav, the pace wasn’t all that ideal and had to cover a lot of ground coming around the final bend and ended up 10+ wide to mount a challenge, he ran on very well to claim a good 2nd behind Yoshida. His next race recorded a career best in a high class Breeders Cup Classic again things going against, he broke well but was reigned back and held up on the inside, the early pace was ideal but was ridden far too cold and detached from the main group with way too much to do, he was around 10 lengths off the eventual winner Accelerate entering the straight but got to within a length on the line in front of Thunder Snow and Yoshida. That is the strongest form of these IMO and the race should be run to suit.
12.15 Godolphin Mile Group 1 – Coal Front 10/1 / Nonkono Yume 33/1 ew
12.50 2m Dubai Gold Cup Group 2 – Ispolini 5/2 / Prince Of Arran 16/1 ew
1.30 6f Al Quoz Sprint – Blue Point no bet / Belvoir Bay 50/1 ew
2.05 1m1f UAE Derby – Janbath 7/1 / Van Beethoven 16/1 ew
2.40 6f Golden Shaheen Group 1 – X Y Jet 3/1 / TATO KEY 16/1 ew
3.20 1m1f Dubai Turf Group 1 – Almond Eye no bet / VIVLOS 20/1 ew
4.00 1m4f Sheema Classic Group 1 – Rey De Oro 3/1 / Cheval Grand 14/1 ew
4.40 1m2f World Cup Group 1 – Gunnevera 14/1
1.30 Blue Point & 3.20 Almond Eye Double 5/2
