Author: Russell Blair

Hereford

2.00 2m4f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle – Lamh Ar Lamh 11/4

Finally broke her duck on her 25^th career start, her 12^th start over hurdles, it didn’t exactly come as a shock, in her race before she was a very close 2^nd and looked a winner in waiting, she looked to of been hit with a unfair 6lb for her 2^nd, but the handicapper got it right as she romped home last week in a conditionals meaning she doesn’t get a penalty for that win, she does race over half a mile less which may not be the best move, but with her looking so well in at present, it should be enough to see her take advantage and win off a low weight in a weak race. Sean Bowen takes back over the reigns which is a big plus, he’s not just having a good season but he loves Hereford with a 25% strike rate and £9 LSP.

Hexham

3.10 2m4f Class 5 Handicap Chase – Graystown 2/1

A decent maiden hurdler that once had a rating of 119, he didn’t start his chasing career too well with making plenty of mistakes, but he improved on his 2^nd outing showing plenty of promise which caused a bit of a gamble NTO, but he disappointed and looked a non stayer, connections didn’t lose faith and dropped the gelding down to in trip and was well backed once again and delivered over the 2mf4 trip which looks the key, the form of the race has taken a nice boost with the 2^nd winning NTO and the 3^rd has won since too. Graystown goes up 5lb for the victory, but still 19lbs under his highest hurdle mark leaves him looking still well treated, plus the in form yard reach out to cheek pieces which also looks like it’ll bring further improvement.

Wolverhampton

7.00 1m1f Class 4 Handicap – Havana Rocket 6/4

Andrew Balding’s 3 year olds are in fine form this season, they have already picked up 10 winners from just 41 runners a cool 24% strike rate, a further 11 more have placed giving him a impressive 50% win and place strike rate, the yard are in great recent form also. This 3 year old colt was a 40k purchase and impressed in his first 3 starts with his form looking strong, he looked likely to win on his 3^rd start before fading out of the race, the testing ground possibly not helping his cause, the yard gave the colt a wind operation which possibly was another reason why the colt didn’t see out the race, the operation had the required effect when winning easily on seasonal debut over 7f, he made all and looked like the mile trip would bring further from him, he gets his wish here at Wolverhampton and with Oisin Murphy booked shows further intent and clearly the horse they all have to beat.

Russell Blair Racing

Lingfield

3.00 7f Class 5 Handicap – First Link 3/1

Recorded back to back victories earlier in the year at Lingfield, the form of her first win was solid with the second and third winning since, her last victory was again boosted with the 2^nd Jai Hanuman winning his next 3 and being raised 19lbs in the process, her form warranted a crack in a class 2 fast track qualifier conditions race at Chelmsford where she again impressed on unfavourable terms, she finished just 5 lengths away from a 101 rated previous double listed winner Clon Coulis, Pattie rated 97 finished 2^nd confirming the form, if taking that evidence literally then First Link ran up to a mark of 83. She returns back to handicap company on mark of 66 leaving her looking very well in and ready to strike again around a course she loves, she does have a couple of little negatives in the shape of a double digit draw but she does like to come of the pace but with not much pace looking likely she may need a bit of luck getting a good position, with a big field she may get a bit of luck as big fields do tend to go that bit quicker.

3.30 2m Class 5 Handicap – Atomic Jack 5/2

Has been in great form this season and found his feet over this staying trip, he won at Kempton on seasonal debut over this trip when very well backed and travelled strongly, he finished with plenty in hand, he was turned out quickly and ran over this C&D when again well backed, but plenty went against him, he broke well from a good draw but was far too keen, Nicola Curie gave up a good position trying to restrain the gelding and drifted back through the field, when the pace picked up she was caught on the back of heels and fell back even more leaving them in an even worse position and early excursions left him looking well beat, but he finished unbelievably well and somehow got to within a head of the winner, obviously very well treated in this grade, he went up into a Class 4 0-80 NTO where he again impressed in a muddling race, the winner Navajo Star was given a great ride by William Carver and stole a 8 length lead entering the last 2 furlongs, Atomic Jack was given far too much to do but did quickly make up ground to get to within 2 lengths. Nicola Currie back on board is a plus, so is the slight drop in grade, he does go up a lb but he still looks well handicapped and deserves a win.

Wolverhampton

6.45 6f Class 5 Handicap – Friendly Advice 17/2

A tricky race with a few open to plenty of progress, but this Keith Dalgleish horse takes the eye, he ran 3 good races in novice company and was given a mark of 71, he ran in a good class 4 0-85 nursery at Newcastle over 5f where he finished a respectful 3^rd, just over a length away from Deputise who won a class 2 fast qualifier NTO and is now rated 96, he wasn’t the only one to boost the form, back in 4^th a length behind Friendly Advice came Woodside Wonder who won his next 2 races going up 11lbs which leaves Friendly Advice looking potentially very well handicapped. Friendly Advice has yet to be seen since that hot form race, he’s since been gelded and has even been eased slightly by the handicapper, if he’s fit after 142 days off the track, he should look very unexposed in this much weaker 0-70 race.

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Carlisle

4.00 2m4f Class 3 Handicap Chase – Du Soleil 2/1

Trainer Venetia Williams is having a fine season and she has a fantastic record when travelling to Carlisle, she has 23 career wins at the course from 82 runners, a strong 28% strike rate +23.47 level stake profit, this season she’s had 3 winners from just 8 runners, 38% strike rate and +9.13 LSP, so definitely worth taking a look at her runners at this track. She sends 3 to Carlisle all with solid claims, but her best is Du Soleil, he was a decent hurdler, he won a novices event at Uttoxeter on debut giving him a mark of 119 where he ran some good races including 2^nd in a strong form race at Leicester, he only had a handful of races over hurdles with connections eyeing his real target over fences like sister Castor Celeste who was a smart 4yo winner over fences in France. Du Soleil made his seasonal debut over timber at this course in October last year where he shaped and jumped well apart from 1 fence, he was caught one paced over a sharp 2 mile trip, but stayed on well to claim a good 3^rd, this step up half a mile will do him no end of favours and has much more scope than this field, also handily has slightly dropped in mark from the handicapper.

Exeter

4.20 3m Class 3 Handicap Chase – For Good Measure 7/2

Philip Hobbs had a fantastic festival Grade 1 winner with Defi Du Seuil and his form since has been sensational, he picked up a treble at the start of the week and has added 4 further victories to his name later this week, he goes mob handed to Exeter today with 4 chances with his best in this staying race. FGM is a full brother to 153 rated Balthazar King who was a very smart staying chaser who won many good races and was 2^nd in 2014 Grand National, also trained by Philip Hobbs. FGM yet to live up to his brothers expectations, he was a 137 rated hurdler with 2 wins to his name on heavy ground, so obviously appreciates cut in the ground, he transitioned to the larger obstacles in some tougher races and not really doing all too well but showing ability at the same time, all 4 runs so far have been on good ground which looks an obvious excuse, he’s latest run he was switched to hurdles where he looked much better on softer ground, he stayed on well to claim 3^rd, he switches back to fences and will encounter softer ground for the first time in this sphere will show his true ability, he also runs off a mark of 129 which looks very exposable against the weakest company his faced.

Carlisle

4.35 3m1f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – Sammy B 9/2

This gelding improved tons when upped to 3 miles 2 years ago and completed a hat trick of wins over the staying distance with todays jockey around this time of year, just a few races and big gaps in between runs hasn’t really showed his true ability, he returned after a 440 day break earlier this year where doing reasonably well but obviously rusty, he impressed NTO in his last run and showed past ability, he now looks well handicapped 6lbs under last winning mark and ready to strike any time.

Russell Blair

Kelso

3.35 3m2f Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – Worthy Farm 10/3

Trainer Paul Nicholls doesn’t send many Kelso way, but when he does there to take note, over the last 5 years he has sent 21 runners up north with 8 coming back with the win, a big 38% strike rate, only 6 chances have been over hurdles and 3 have come back victorious, 50% strike rate. He sends 2 up North today, his only hurdler Worthy Farm looks his best chance after his last display in a class 3 at Ascot, he raced widest of the whole field giving away lots of ground, he travelled and jumped well and looked to have the race wrapped up when hitting the front 2 out with the jockey on the bridle motionless while the field was al hard at work, he jumped the last pulling away from the field and looked to have tons in hand, his winning margin was cut down when he idled in front but still, but still well in command and not worried. He goes up 7lb for that victory which on that evidence looks fair even if only winning by just over half a length. Paul Nicholls calls upon Lorcan Williams who takes off a handy 5lbs of the 7lb rise, the ground looks ideal and with Aye Right and Rivabodiva in the field, he’ll have the perfect pace scenario.

Newbury

3.50 2m4f Class 2 Handicap Chase – Valdez 9/4

Very lightly raced chaser, won a novice Grade 2 just over 5 years ago before running a big 5^th in the Grade 1 Arkle at the festival, only 7 races to his name since with a mixed bag of results, his latest display was pleasing to the eye in a good Grade 3 handicap over today’s C&D and showed that his old form isn’t too distant, he finished 3^rd just 2 lengths from the 2^nd Gala Ball, he was unfortunately hampered by a rider less horse 2 out and lost several lengths in the process, he recovered and finished well and although certain not to beat the winner, I’m certain he had the better of Gala Ball, GB goes up 3lb while Valdez gets a 1lb hike which is enough alone to reverse the form and with the problems Valdez encountered, in theory he’s a few lengths better than GB, Valdez also gets the services of Wayne Hutchinson who knows the horse better Tom Cannon and is a better overall jockey.

Lingfield

4.20 6f Class 6 Handicap – Sundiata 11/4

A very well bred Prince Abdullah filly out of a Empire Making mare whose sired many great non turf horses which includes 6 time Grade 1 dirt superstar Royal Delta, Sundiata sire Showcasing has sired many class horses which includes double Grade 1 winner Quiet Reflection, Grade 1 winning Advertise who is very exciting to follow this season and Tasleet who are all fantastic 6f specialists, so Sundiata running in a first time handicap off a mark just 63 is extremely low compared to her breeding lines and looks ready to take advantage. Her last run was pleasing also, she was slow away and had to be ridden early to make up ground, she raced too freely but hit the front well in the straight and looked like she was going to win well, but her early excursions was costly thou and was caught close home by a much more experienced 64 rated Second Collection, Sundiata should of learned a lot from that race and looks ready to expose her mark.

Newbury

2.20 2m6f Class 3 Handicap Chase –  Voie Dans Voie 9/4

An 11 race maiden, 5 over fences has been awkward to follow but has always looked to possess plenty of ability, non-more so than LTO when impressing form the front, his jumping was much more fluent and he looked the winner for much of the race and was travelling better than the well backed short priced fav Orchardstown Cross coming into the straight until getting into the 3 out tight and losing momentum and paving way for the eventual winner, he still finished well and was strong through the line and was a gallant 8 lengths behind in 2^nd while giving away a huge 19lbs including claimer. The form of that particular race has taken a nice boost with the winner and 3^rd both winning well NTO, VDV doesn’t get hit by the handicapper for that and today he steps up into a class 3 which will be against tougher company, but won’t have to carry as much weight looks ideal and a good move IMO and gets to race against more exposed rivals. Another big plus is the red hot recent form of the stable, Alan King since Cheltenham has picked up a fantastic 6 winners plus a close 2^nd from 8 runners, 5 of them with today’s jockey Wayne Hutchinson.

3.25 3m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Goodnitesweetheart 7/2

Perhaps hit a little unfairly with a 7lb penalty for a short head victory LTO but the front 2 was well clear of the rest of the field and she was giving a lot of weight away on just her 2^nd start after a near 22 month absence, that was her first try at 3 miles and she looked at home over the testing trip in what looked a weak 0-100 race, but  the form of the race is solid with the 2^nd winning well carry 6lbs more NTO, and the 3^rd and 8^th have both since, she does go up to a 0-115 but she’s open to plenty more and with the form encouraging she’s worth keeping onside.

4.30 2m Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – Nube Negra 2/1

The Skelton Brothers are another in fine form, they picked up 2 good winners at the festival and have carried on in fine style since with 4 winners that have all won very well since, today their best chance comes from Nube Negra whose a two time winner over hurdles last season, he returned this year after a wind surgery and was entered into a competitive Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham, he looked and shaped well but tired quickly understandably after over 7 months absence, still plenty of positives to take from that race and form. His next race came in a weaker class 2 at Taunton where he was backed and travelled through his race very well, when effortlessly cruising into contention and travelling all over the field, he looked like the winner some way out until unfortunately brought down 2 out. If the fall hasn’t dented confidence, then he looks a classy horse and this should be a steeping stone for bigger things.

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Sedgefield

2.05 2m4f Class 5 Mares Handicap Hurdle – Calliope 9/2

Diane Sayer has a fantastic record when sending her runners Sedgefield way, she has 19 winners around the course the last 5 years from 87 runners, a cool 22% which compared to her overall 9% win rate is very significant, her form here this season has also been exceptional and already notched up 6 winners from 17 runners over hurdles (35% strike rate). Today she sends 2 to Sedgefield both with obvious intrigue, but her first looks the most interesting, Calliope a 2 time winner on the flat and had 3 novice runs against opposite sex, all for a very good trainer Kenneth Slack, her last run before moving yards was pleasing to the eye on similar ground where she finished a good 9 length 2^nd behind Sweet Venetia who got a rating of 112, back in 3^rd was Morraman who was rated 120 was giving away 6lb but still makes Calliope rating of 98 in her first handicap bow look dangerous. She’s since also had a wind operation which could see a big improvement and she gets to race against her same sex for the first time which will also be easier.

Chepstow

4.00 3m Class 4 Handicap Chase – Sandhurst Lad 3/1

Broke his duck on the fourth time of asking in first time blinkers when beating Findusatgorcombe under a length when giving him a lot of weight, Findus boosted the form NTO when winning a fairly weak race. Sandhurst Lad goes up 5lb for the victory which looks lenient, this does look a little harder race but he does the quality of the race with more scope than a pretty exposed field so should cope well, Richard Johnson takes the reigns who has a great record at Chepstow and a positive £20 LSP to a £1 over fences at the course the last 5 years.

Cork

5.00 3m Handicap Hurdle – Ronald Pump 5/1

The penny has dropped for the gelding this season, he was backed at big prices when upped in trip when winning at this course in December, he had to battle to win and beat a Willie Mullins gelding called Eight And Bob who has heavily boosted the form when winning well twice since and now rated 30lbs more. Ronald Pump himself boosted the form when following up when upped in trip further to 3 miles and smashing a good field, off 6lbs more with the first time services of Paul Townend. He was raised a further 13lbs and ran in a competitive Navan race, he was given a wide trip and was given a lot to do in the latter stages of a sharper trip all of which was a big negative, but bar a mistake 3 out he, there was big positives to take from that race for the way he finished and as close as he got, this is a much easier race as far as company, but the step back up to 3 miles is the key for me and Paul Townend on once again is eye catching.

Russell Blair Racing

Market Rasen

3.40 2m3f Class 4 Handicap Chase – Brave Spartacus 5/1

Not been the most consistent since his switch to Gillian Boanas yard just over 2 years ago, but hard not to think he’s very well in still, even after his 5lb rise for his latest win, the gelding was once rated 145 over fences for Keith Reveley, he won off a mark of 126 for Gillian in August 2017 for his mark to be raised to 133 before his form dipped and his mark at the same time quickly dropped 28lbs within a year, he capitalised last month in a 0-115 when making all when well backed over this C&D to add to his good course form. The way he drew clear of his rivals also gives the impression his very well in at present and the 5lb rise shouldn’t be enough to stop him around a course he loves and on ground he thrives on, also he steps down slightly into a 0-110 race and should get his own way again upfront.

Haydock

4.20 3m Class 4 Veterans Handicap Chase – Buffalo Ballet 9/1

A very lightly raced veteran from a yard that’s not just firing over fences this season, but also in great current form and one to keep onside, Mr Alexander doesn’t tend to venture out of the Scottish regions too much, so the 500+ mile round trip is of significance. Buffalo did run in this race last year for his first and only stint in a veterans race, he ran a fine race in defeat when finishing 2^nd in the first time blinkers off a mark of 107, since his just had the 3 runs against much hotter company but still ran and shaped well with his mark handily dropping to a nice 102 in the process, the switch to veterans company will be much easier and could look very well handicapped.

Chepstow

5.05 2m3f Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Tegerek 5/1

Has been improving well and impressing over the minimum trips, although not bred for stamina trips, all his best work has been in the latter stages and this step up in trip looks the right move especially on his 10f flat win in France shows he has stamina. His last run which was his first in handicap company was very pleasing especially after running very freely but still finishing just 4 lengths away in a good-looking novice race which is backed up by the 2^nd winning a maiden very well NTO and the distant 9^th also winning. Tegerek doesn’t look like he needs to improve that much to take this, but if he settles better and the trip see’s more from him, added to his likely usual progression and into a more exposed field he looks very dangerous.

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Wetherby

2.10 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Bonne Question 11/8

Trainer Venetia Williams is having a great year and already notched up 26 winners since the start of January, she has great record at Wetherby especially over hurdles, with her career strike rate at 27%. She sends just the one handicapping at Wetherby today, 10 year old Bonne Question who recorded a career best on his penultimate run when smashing his rivals by 19 lengths under today’s jockey Charlie Deutsch, they turned the gelding out quickly to just get a 7lb penalty to looking likely to get another win at Sandown under amateur Miss Bell, until the horse started making mistakes in the final stages and looking lonely upfront he was taken close home, the way he travelled and powered clear still leaves him looking very well in and a more patient ride would of surely seen him picking up back to back victories, he goes up another 8lb’s which obviously makes things more tricky, but with Charlie back on board and with the gelding still looking well treated, he should get his due rewards.

3.15 3m Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – Minella Warrior 11/8

The most likely winner of the race after his close 2^nd on handicap debut behind future Cheltenham festival Pertemps 3^rd Not Many Left, that alone leaves him looking head and shoulders above these, however his knee action does look to appreciate good ground and both his wins have been on good ground, still yet to win with any type of soft in the going description is a worry, but if he does take to the predicted soft ground today, his class should be dominant, if you don’t mind taking the chance then his odds of 11/8 may be appealing.

Huntingdon

3.40 2m Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – Capone 6/4

Has looked a very smart hurdler in just his 3 runs so far, he broke his maiden tag on his 2^nd run, his 3^rd and last run again seen a huge run behind Grade 1 winning Quel Destin before QD went and finished 5^th in this year’s Triumph, QD is rated 146 and Capone makes his handicap debut on a mark of 127 which leaves him looking very well in already and with plenty more scope, he’s looking like the bet of the day.

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1.30 JLT 2m4f Novice Chase Grade 1 – Defi Du Seuil 11/4

Defi Du Seuil starts the first race as the jolly and he certainly deserves it, already a festival winner when winning the Triumph back in 2017, he’s switch to fences didn’t start so well when a distant 5^th to Lalor in a Arkle trial back in November, he learnt a lot from the race and jumped much better NTO and the step up in trip was also key to beating a very good Topofthegame who boosted the form significantly winning yesterday’s RSA. Defi Du Seuil then ran a huge race in defeat to Lostintranslation, DDS had a 3lb penalty to contend with which would have reversed the form that day, plus he looked like he hit the front too early and idled. They met each other again NTO in the Scilly where DDS turned the form on LIT on a softer surface and off level weights, with the ground looking to suit DDS again he looks to have the better of LIT again.

2.10 Pertemps 3m Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 – Samburu Shujaa 11/1

Has taken a while for the penny to drop for this gelding, he’s been learning his craft slowly and his ridden in some hot novice/maiden races behind the likes of Kateson, Nestor Park, Birchdale etc, but the step up to 3 miles around a similar galloping undulating course like Chepstow has seen him in his best light, he broke his duck on his penultimate run when demolishing a decent race, the 2^nd and 5^th have both won since, SS then went and won a hot looking competitive qualifier on his first handicap bow again around Chepstow making all easily, he jumped effortlessly and jockey only had to use the whip on the run in just make sure the job was done, he had the field well strung out and looked very well handicapped, he goes up 7lbs for the victory which handily doesn’t look harsh enough but enough to sneak into this race off one of the bottom weights.

2.50 Ryanair 2m4f Chase Grade 1 – The Storyteller 22/1

He was a festival winner here last season he then went to become champion novice chaser at Punchestown, he had a lot of luck when doing that with the race falling apart nicely for him, but he was staying on well and looked to challenging before the race fell apart, his senior season hasn’t gone to plan but in all his runs have come on dryer ground than he would of liked, his best performance when 4 lengths behind Min on yielding ground at Punchestown, he didn’t jump all that well either, so to get as close he did needs marking up. His last performance was pleasing over 3 miles in the Irish Gold Cup over 7 lengths behind Bellshill again on ground he doesn’t like and distance that doesn’t look his strongest, the return back to 2m4f a plus and the ground more in favour will see a different Storyteller IMO and with Gordon Elliott picking up 2 winners yesterday from a fair to say bad start, he’ll have everyone’s faith once again.

3.30 Stayers Hurdle 3m Grade 1 – Supasundae 10/1

Supasundae seems to be always the best man, never the groom, but has some fantastic form in defeat, he was last year’s runner up which needs marking up as he looked in bits before the race, but ran a cracker with just 2 lengths behind Penhill which was his last try at this staying trip, before that he had 2 other tries where again close 2^nds behind class animals, Yanworth and Apple’s jade, so his defeats have been against far superior beasts than what he faces today IMO. This year’s form is slightly below last years but his been improving as the season progresses and they’ve all been on good ground, which he does get, but his best form is on softer which he’ll see for the first time this season and since he’s dominant win in Irish Champion Hurdle, the step up to 3 miles where he’s produced some of his best displays also look key here for another improvement this season.

4.10 Plate 2m4f Handicap Chase Grade 1 – Eamon An Cnoic 10/1

The yard certainly aim them for this race, between David and his Dad Martin Pipe for the same yard they have won this race 7 times in the last 20 years, the gelding ran in last years Ultima at the festival, where he was travelling and jumping very well before not seeing out the gruelling 3m+ trip on heavy ground, but it was still a note book worthy run off 137, this season started slowly but still was shaping and jumping well but not seeing out his runs, he had a wind operation which seemed to do all the difference and won a hot handicap chase at Chepstow over a sharp 2 mile trip to again allow him to sneak into this race when upped 7lb from the handicapper, he’s looking very well treated off 137 again exactly the same as last years novice mark and we should see further improvement back up to what looks his optimum trip.

4.50 Mares 2m1f Novice Hurdle Grade 2 – Elusive Belle 12/1

The £180k purchase for Nicky Henderson hit the ground running when bolting up in a novice at Wincanton, she has plenty of speed which she showed when 2^nd in a Listed bumper in Ireland before the move, she blew her chances NTO and on her last run when pulling her way through the race, jockey Sam Waley-Cohen had a tough time restraining and as a result made plenty of mistakes, however she was very eye catching when hitting the front still with Sam trying his best to pull the jockey back, Sam eventually gave up and let her go where she pulled clear from the field before her antics taking their toll and more mistakes over hurdles she lost her lead, impressively thou she still stayed on well showing good stamina reserves at the same time. Today the yard sensibly applies the hood which will see her in a much better light plus the much faster pace on here will also be a huge plus.

5.30 Kim Muir 3m2f Amateur Handicap Chase Class 2 – Kilfilum Cross 12/1

This gelding has been bounded around the last 3 years and been trained by 5 trainers in that time, his best before his last run came for Kim Bailey over hurdles recording back to back wins in staying novice events, he had a rating of 137 at the time before moving to Christopher Kellett where he made his chasing debut and learnt some valuable experience over his fences while at the same time cleverly protecting his handicap mark, he moved to Henry Oliver’s yard rated a dangerous 130, he made a very eye catching debut run off 12 stone 1lb, he was a 7/1 into 6/4 gamble and it showed why, he travelled through his race very strongly, and under a gentle ride hit the front 3 out, he didn’t’ jump the last 3 all that well, jumping left and was headed, but his quality showed when powering home on not favourable good ground and giving away plenty of weight at the same time, he goes up 7lb for that, but the novice looks to have plenty more to give, plus the easing ground will be a huge plus.

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