Author: Russell Blair

Cheltenham Day 2 betting tips and preview

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1.30 Ballymore 2m5f Novices Hurdle Grade 1

Champ sits at the top of the market after 2 great displays around a similar course at Newbury, his last race was in the Challow where he was visually impressive with his jumping, he looked in trouble briefly when Getaway Trump looked to travelling much better, but Champ pulled away well in the final furlong, at the time he looked the horse to beat after that win, but the form hasn’t worked out very well at all with the closest rivals Getaway Trump, Kateson & Brewin’upastorm all getting well beat since, plus winners of the Challow have a real bad record in the Ballymore and 7 year olds have only won this race once in it’s 47 year history, a lot against Champ in this but no doubt one for the future over the larger obstacles.

BATTLEOVERDOYEN however has no real negatives, he won his maiden very stylishly on yielding ground and went straight for a crack at a Grade 1 in the Lawlor’s where he was almost foot perfect over his hurdles except for little niggle at the last, he was a little green coming off the bend, but just his 2^nd run over hurdles, it’s to be expected and he looks to have so much raw ability and he’s such a huge horse that has the most scope of the field, plus all his form is on good ground but his action wants soft ground and will see him step up again, the time he clocked too was very impressive and for me looks a future chasing superstar.

Brewin’upastorm was 4 lengths behind Champ in the Challow and looked likely to improve for the run, he went off fav for a trial for this race at Cheltenham where he was going well upfront until getting challenged at the last where he got it all wrong a took a big fall which just before the festival, isn’t ideal, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run a big one, but I’m still happy to oppose.

City Island is the 2^nd highest rated at 147 in the field which is hard to fathom, he beat Dallas des Pictons on his penultimate race by 3 lengths, DDP has gone on to win his next 2, the last off a mark of 130 in a weak handicap, City Island next win came in a weak novice hurdle where he did win well but the form is very weak and the mark of 147 looks very inflated.

Sams Profile needs a second look after his 2^nd behind Battleoverdoyen LTO, he done plenty wrong but still managed to get within 3 lengths off the winner, it’s hard to back him with any confidence on how many mistakes he made, but if his learnt a lot from that run, he’ll be a big threat.

2.10 RSA 3m Novices Chase Grade 1

Delta Work already a festival winner when winning the Grade 3 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, he was a 152 rated hurdler after his last race when a close neck 2^nd to Next Destination in the Grade 1 Punchestown Novice Hurdle last year, he’s carried on his form and progression very well over the larger obstacles and has added 2 novice Grade 1’s to his name already, the first when beating Le Richebourg by half a length after the jockey lost his iron, LR boosted that form when picking up 2 Grade 1’s himself since going back in trip, Delta Work went the opposite way and went up in trip to 3 miles where he again improved visually to win his next Grade 1, the form of the race isn’t anything special, but he won in 2^nd gear almost, jockey Davy Russell only used the whip after the last fence just to make sure the job was done. He looks the class act but he has a tough challenger.

Topofthegame looks the toughest opponent for Delta Work, he was higher rated than Delta Work over hurdles but is yet to win over fences, that doesn’t discredit him as both was in tough races, the first when losing plenty of ground at the start but finished just over 3 lengths off Defi Du Seuil future Grade 1 scilly Isles winner, then he went up to 3 miles in the Kauto Star at Kempton where again 2^nd to La Bague Au Roi who went on to win another Grade 1 in Leopardstown in the Flogas. So, while not winning he still brings in top class form, he’s obviously not straightforward and does have to be played at the right time, but if they get that right, I’d say he has the better chances of the 2 at the top of the market.

Santini is the lay of the race for me, he’s been the buzz horse for this race since the start of the season and looked the part on his debut in the John Francome, he won convincingly and looked plenty more to come, however things haven’t gone well since, he could only finish 3^rd the Kauto Star 2 lengths off Topofthegame, the sharp track the excuse, yes the Cheltenham track will suit more, but he will still have to show more speed than he did at Kempton to be competitive in this, which I don’t think he has, plus he missed his prep for this race because of Fluenza and he even had a worry last week when losing a shoe causing bruising in the process, which obviously isn’t a huge deal but both combined will of upset his training to add to previous doubts.

DROVERS LANE looks the ew play of the race, he won on debut before tackling a good race at Aintree where mistakes was costly, he put that behind him quickly and improved just as quick to win his next 2 races, the last over this course in December, he looks like he still had a lot to learn when last seen, but if he’s progressed well again since, he’ll have a big say in this race, plus he’s had a wind op which may bring further improvement from the gelding.

2.50 Coral cup 2m5f Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

An absolute minefield that’s headed by Uradel at the top of the market whose hard for me to get a grip on his chances, he’s mainly been ran on the flat where he’s ran a few big races, he beat Limini at Galway but had a big weight advantage on her, he then ran a bigger race in the Cesarewitch and just missed out by half a length to stablemate Low Sun, he was given a mark of 102 on the flat, he made his season reappearance when going off fav in a big handicap at Leopardstown over minimum 2 mile trip where he travelled through the race well and was eye catching in his finish, 2m5f may see plenty more improvement and I’m sure his mark has been protected over hurdles, but I’m not convinced he’s all that well in off 137 compared to his flat mark and I’ll be looking at for a more unexposed runner.

Brio Conti is lightly raced, only 2 races over fences since his novice days, he won at Ascot LTO beating Honest Vic by a head, he was last coming around the final bend and stylishly took the field and took the lead jumping the last, he did run about a little on the run in which is a worry over a more testing course and trip, further behind was Ballyandy and Malaya who boosted the form when looking very well handicapped in the Imperial Cup at Sandown the weekend just gone, Brio goes up 5lb for that success which leaves him looking still well in, but there was one in behind him that loos better treated.

Cracking Smart is another hard to gauge, his novice form is very good with his 2^nd to Next destination in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s early last year the standout, he was rated 150 for that and after a year off he disappointed in a hot race at Leopardstown but he did show old promise in a Grade 2 at Navan last month, the ground is turning in favour for this gelding and he could look very well treated if he can build on last performance, but for me hasn’t showed enough to say he’s ready to improve again.

Farclas won the Triumph last year but form since is very weak and he looks out of sorts, he does have a few positives as in the ground , course and even the step up in trip looks right, but he looks far from well treated on handicap debut and one I’d take a big swerve away from.

BALLYANDY is a horse that pleases the eye and is a lovely price, especially if you fancy Brio Conti, Ballyandy was under 5 lengths off BC LTO, he was travelling very well in the race and had his head in front before jumping the last slow and not quickening under a gentle ride, the vet said he suffered with heat stress after the race which obviously wouldn’t of helped and his performance needs marking up considerably, he has a 5lb swing with BC in this and barring no problems he’ll positively reverse the form.

3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase 2m Grade 1

Altior is the superstar of the festival and while I always believe no horse in unbeatable, I contradictory think backing against this beast is throwing money away, so with that being said, the fun bet would be trying to guess the tricast and not very original but I think it could mirror last year’s finish, last year’s runner up Min has returned this season in fantastic form and has picked up 2 Grade 1’s, he looks the obvious biggest threat. Last years 3^rd God’s Own who was well beat but still put in a brave effort and was strongest of his rivals in the finish to claim 3^rd, last year’s soft, borderline heavy conditions wasn’t ideal and this years soft at present ground still isn’t ideal, but the weather over the next 24 hours looking much better and the ground could dry out well under the strong winds to predicted good to soft. God’s Own has looked well this season and won the Haldon Gold Cup while giving away weight to his closest competition. His last race was also pleasing when 2^nd to Charbel giving away weight at 2m4f. This step back to 2 miles looks a plus and hopefully he’s best of the rest to complete our tricast.

4.10 Glenfarclas 3m6f X Country Chase Class 2

Not a race I get firmly involved in, but there’s a horse I’ve had a close eye on for a long minute, Amazing Comedy went off 50/1 in this 2 years ago, the good ground was well against that day but he ran a huge race and at one point he looked like he was going to nick a result when he pulled 3 lengths away coming to the final bend, he quickly tired on the firm ground but claimed a respectful 5^th, since he’s moved yards which is very close to home, he now runs for for the ex trainers son who is a 3 time ex French champion jockey in his own right and has really hit the ground running. The gelding romped a good race on his home soil on very soft ground before coming over here for another crack at Cheltenham or perhaps prep for this race, he was very well backed from around 16/1 the day before to 7/2 fav, again, he looked the winner when travelling through his race effortlessly but unfortunately found nothing when applied pressure and jumped the last 2 wrong, again the ground was against and he finished a creditable 4^th, the softer ground will be a big plus and his 40/1 is very enticing and has big claims for a piece of the action and place to boot.

1.30 Battleoverdoyen 4/1 Sams Profile 11/1 ew (4places)

2.10 Drovers Lane 20/1 ew

2.50 Ballyandy 25/1

3.30 Altior/ Min/ God’s Own (tricast) 15/1

4.10 Amazing Comedy 40/1 ew

Russell Blair Racing

Cheltenham Day 1 betting tips and preview

Brought to you by Russell Blair Racing

1.30 Supreme 2m Novices Hurdle Grade 1

This looks a cracking start to the festival, not for quality but just for how wide open it looks, current fav Al Dancer while doesn’t have many chinks in his armour while watching him rack up 4 wins from 4, he hasn’t exactly beaten much IMO, Getaway Trump perhaps his biggest opponent faced who was a good 2^nd behind Champ in the Challow, other than that, he’s beaten good handicap horses well and while I’m not saying his not good enough and won’t improve more, his odds are unappealing.

Angels Breath who is owned by same part owner as Al Dancer follows him in the betting and for me is even more of a scandalous price, he was the buzz horse for this race even before his debut when winning a good Grade 2 Novice at Ascot late December, the race however was a bit of a shambles with the low sun affecting the race and as a result they only jumped 4 hurdles, so more of a flat race than a hurdle race TBF, the form of the race hasn’t worked out well either. Since that victory on soft ground, connections have been waiting for similar conditions over the dry winter, with the ground not easing they had to get a run into him and was even further held up by the Fluenza, they eventually found a race for him in a Grade 2 Novice where he finished a close 2^nd, although he was giving away 5lb to the winner Southfield Stone who is a smart horse, it was still disappointing performance considering SS done everything he could to throw the race away with hitting the last flight hard, running about and then hanging left across the track on the run in, but still the hard ridden AB couldn’t pass him, also AB was outpaced by the winner when making his move coming off the bend, giving the impression AB could do with further, while the testing Cheltenham track will suit more and potential underfoot conditions to help, I’m still pretty confident AB isn’t as ready as he should be and is the lay of the race.

Klassical Dream has been all the rage since the trainer has focussed all his attention on this race, he’s the joint highest rated horse of the race since Elixir De Nutz has unfortunately been withdrawn, for me he looked more of a stayer when last seen winning at Leopardstown, he beat a previous novice Grade 1 winner in the form of stablemate Aramon and so his form can’t be knocked and is the Irish strongest chance, however for me he looked more of a stayer when last seen winning at Leopardstown, he needed every bit of the 2miles, obviously this is a more testing course which will help but I can see him getting a little outpaced which could be crucial to his chances.

Fakir D’Oudairis will have a tough time at the unexperienced age of 4 against much tougher and bigger elders, he does have a class look to him but surely this won’t be his year but one to watch for the future

Mister Fisher’s form is pretty solid when beating Rouge Vif who won his next 2 which includes a Grade 2 at Kelso with a well beaten Getaway trump in the field, I’d rather have him over Angels Breath even if jockey Nico de Boinville has opted for the latter.

GRAND SANCY is a very gritty and likeable horse, he’s far from screaming superstar or even very classy, but his heart and battle qualities will see him strong in the finish and ready to pick up any pieces that are on offer, he’s progressed well in every run and his 2^nd in the Tolworth demands respect, the 3^rd horse Southfield Stone who we mentioned earlier beat Angels Breath NTO boosting the form, Grand Sancy also confirmed the form when the Kingwell beating Sceau Royal and Vision Des Flos who also boosted his form when winning a Grade 2 NTO.

Itchy Feet also needs a mention if Grand Sancy is the pick, he beat the mentioned gelding in October before a strong 2^nd to Elixir De Nutz carrying a 5lb penalty, all his form is on good ground and hasn’t been seen since which is a worry, but if he’s progressed well enough, it wouldn’t be a shock to me to see him run a big race from a big price.

 

2.10 Arkle 2m Grade 1 Novice Chase

GLEN FORZA has had a pretty sensational season considering he’s ran at pretty much ran every scenario he could face already, he started as a 2 mile hurdler where he ran a respectful 2^nd in good company at a sharp track, he then went half a mile around a totally different characteristic course to improve again, he then went up another half a mile to make a winning chase debut against good handicap company at 3 miles to show his stamina strengths around a undulating galloping course which looked his forte, but then he was tried over 2m4f at the flat, sharp Kempton track, where he again showed his progression to take the race in his stride in a strong form race to warrant a crack at a big prize, he went on to face 4/1 odds on fav Kalashnikov who was not only 14lb superior and the big favourite for the Arkle race, he had to again drop half a mile to face him, not only did he defy the odds but he smashed the Arkle favs to bits to take his chase record to 3 from 3 and to do it, going left, right, flat, undulating, sharp, testing, galloping, 2m, 2m4f, 3 miles, you name it, he’s done it all and showed no weaknesses, even takes a liking to any ground, he’s been a fantastic horse to watch and hopefully he can highlight here with a victory to record predominantly flat trainer Mick Channon his first Grade 1.

Lalor would also be a big fan fav for trainer Kayley Woollacott who lost her husband early last year and after taking over her husband’s yard which at the time was meant to be temporary until they figured out suitable arrangements, but this gelding had bigger plans for all involved and won the Grade 1 Top Novices Hurdle at Aintree for a emotional story for connections. He started his chasing career in fine style over this C&D on good ground beating a strong field which included Dynamite Dollars who’s since won his next 3 which includes a Grade 1, he also finished well ahead of Defi Du Seuil whose won a grade 1 when taking the Scilly Isles Novice. Lalor had the form reversed NTO with Dynamite Dollars at Sandown on soft, connections blamed the ground and right-handed track for his below form performance, which unfortunately for him and connections here the ground should again be out of his comfort zone, hopefully I’m wrong.

The best of the Irish raiders IMO comes from Gordon Elliott’s Hardline who already has a Grade 1 to his name when beating Getabird who gifted him the race when jumping the final fence all wrong at Limerick, he then raced at 2m5f NTO on good ground, while not discrassed, he didn’t look at home on the fast ground he’ll enjoy the softer conditions here, also the 2 mile trip looks the right move.

Willie Mullins trained Duc Des Genievres is arguably the hardest horse to judge, he’s perhaps visually the best horse on LTO’s displays where he won a class 1 beginners chase very easily to record his first career win from 8 for Willie, he’s not exactly the most consistent of performers and his penultimate run over 2 miles was less to be desired when finishing 3^rd sandwiched between 2 horses rated low 130’s, also he hasn’t won going left handed from 4 tries, while I wouldn’t be surprised to win if he again improves from LTO, he isn’t for me.

Paloma Blue could surprise a few, he has solid hurdle form lines over 2 miles, he only has 2 runs over fences this season, but won well considering it was far from perfect, if his learnt a lot from that, he could upset a lot. Also, stablemate Ornua while not so progressive his last bit of form behind Dynamite Dollars in the Henry VIII novices deserves lots of credit and will see him in the mix.

2.50 Ultima 3m1f Grade 3 Handicap Chase

Give Me a Copper will certainly be well fancied here after his last effort giving away a lot of weight to most of the field from a long break, he travelled through the race strongly and looked menacing 3 out but race fitness looked to of showed and he quickly tired out of it, he had entries for the Gold Cup, so connections obviously think a little bit more of him this and certainly has potential, I’m however unconvinced at his price in this deep race and rather look elsewhere.

Jonjo O’Neill has a great record in this race, his won it 3 times in the last 10 years and saddles up Minella Rocco here, his only had 1 win from 14 tries which is far from appealing and has only completed 9 of them runs so, 4 from his last 8 which also leaves many question marks on his character IMO, he was however rated 166 under a year and a half a go and now comes here off 152 after being highly tried, so it’d be no surprise to see him looking well treated if in the mood.

Mr Whitaker is interesting on his first run past 2m5f, he won last years Close Brothers novice handicap and has impressed this year, first on season reappearance when beating Happy Diva and Cyrnmame in a listed at Carlisle, he went up 7lbs and then went on to the Gold Cup handicap at Cheltenham, where he wasn’t disgraced but didn’t seem to like the fast pace upfront, he finished strongly thou and looked like we’d see him in a better light when upped in trip, his last run again seen run a good race giving away weight to the whole field, this time behind, so far the horse of the season Cyrname who pulverised the field before going on to big things, Mister Whitaker looked again like the step up in trip will see him improve, he gets his wish here over a testing 3m1f and around a course he thrives at.

Coo Star Sivola won this race last year off 142 and went up to 150 where his struggled a little since, but ground hasn’t been in favour since and has dropped handily 5lbs in 4 races, the more the rain comes the stronger his chances gets, which while I think he’ll see a big run, I don’t think the ground will be as soft as he’d like and there’s some better weighted rivals, in behind Coo Star Sivola in last years Ultima was Vintage Clouds, Beware the Bear, Singlefarmpayment, O O Seven and Cogry who all the same don’t strike me as well handicapped, Vintage Clouds would be the one to pick from them as the EW play, he didn’t look completely at home on the heavy ground and jockey Danny Cook had to get to work on him a long way out and looked well beat but plugged on all the way to the line to finish 6 lengths 3^rd, he recorded a career best on season reappearance which puts him 3lb above his mark in this last season, which will be tough, but the better ground a plus and also has had a wind operation and he runs well fresh.

Up For Review is IMO the Irish best chance in the race, he’s a Grade 2 novice hurdle winner at Punchestown over 3 miles and made a pleasing start to fences early last year when 2^nd to Some Neck who later won a Grade 2 novice chase at Punchestown, Up for Review won his 2^nd chase start as expected by an eased down 15 lengths which warranted a crack at a Grade 1 Ryanair Gold Cup novice at Fairyhouse where he came a respectful 4^th, he finished the season with a easy win at Killarney. He started this season very eye catching when taking the scenic route over 3m1f at Gowran, he travelled through the race very stylishly but the wide route by design from Paul Townend and the 256 days off the course took his toll and he just plugged on one pace to line behind Gold Cup destined Invitation Only. His mark of 146 looks very dangerous on his last run and has plenty of scope.

The bet of the race and day thou comes from the Skelton’s yard, CRUCIAL ROLE is still a unexposed novice which is a big plus in these types of races, he does have a tendancy to break blood vessels but when on song he looks a very smart gelding and a great strong jumper, he gave a lot of weight away in his latest win when making all against a good and well handicapped looking field, he won very easily by 15 lengths and would be hit by the handicapper very hard, he only gets the 5lb penalty under rules which leaves him looking very well in, he was very strong in his finish and the extra trip looks a big plus with the course also looking to suit.

3.30 Champion Hurdle 2m Grade 1

Not only the battle of the day, but for me the battle of the festival, superstar Buveur D’Air aims to add his name to the exclusive list of 3 time winners of this contest, at one time the reigning champion looked unbeatable even if just winning this race by half a length last year, he racked up a 11 streak winning sequence earlier this season which lasted over 32 months until a below par effort in the Christmas Hurdle where he was just beat by stablemate Verdana Blue, BD ran well considering he hit the 3^rd flight hard and got to the front too early, but still showed he has kinks and obviously beatable. That paved way for a host of challengers to take him on and non-look better than APPLE’S JADE this season who’s took her form to new heights this season, she started at 2m4f’s where she beat 2 good fields stylishly which includes 164 rated Supasundae she beat by 20 lengths, she went up half a mile to 3 miles to win the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, for which she looked at home over the trip but then head scratching’ly at the time was dropped back to 2 miles for the Irish Champion Hurdle, no doubt the class act of the field and ability would probably see her win the race, she sensationally recorded her career best and now looking the best 2 mile hurdler this season, she also has a very handy 7lb allowance against BD that leaves her looking very hard to beat, hopefully we see BD back to his best and what could be a epic battle, but for what I’ve seen this season, it’s hard not to think Apple’s jade has his measure even if the race will be run to suit for BD.

Of the others, Willie Mullins trained Laurina hasn’t done anything wrong this season and has took her win streak to 6, unfortunately she hasn’t been beating anything like BD and AJ have and what she has beat hasn’t exactly beat them as good as she should of and for me will be found out in this race and the lay of the race. Willie Mullins other 2, Sharjah and Melon both have better chances IMO and I’d side with Melon being the better chance especially if the rain gets into the ground, she hasn’t exactly been firing this season and has been well beat but she had a similar spell last season before recording a career best when finishing a neck 2^nd in this race last year when the ground was heavy, she would of again be aimed for this race and has the aid of first time cheek pieces which will help her concentrate.

4.10 Mares Hurdle 2m4f Grade 1

I’ll keep this one short and sweet as 1 – I’m not a fan of mare races and 2 – I haven’t got that strong an opinion in the race, last years winner Benie Des Dieux comes into this a very short price, ok she beat a very good Apple’s jade and Midnight Tour who looked to of recorded a fluke 2^nd IMO, BBD confirmed her form when winning the Irish Mares Champion Hurdle again ahead of a below par AJ, she hasn’t been seen again since which isn’t ideal as you would at least like to know how she looks, but she has a excellent record fresh, so no concerns in that regard and there’s no threat like AJ in this race, stablemate Limini has been on the go since the summer on the flat, where she was fairly inconsistent, the switch back to hurdles has seen her better and her recent 4^th just over 2 lengths off Presenting Percy was a good show and she looks like staying trips are more her liking these days, Stormy Ireland still has raw ability and her form is decent in defeat to Espoir D’Allen a now rated 162 gelding and Laurina who is now rated 159.

Dan Skelton has a decent mare in Roksana who will love the underfoot conditions, she racked up 3 wins in a row over todays trip and then ran 2 fine races in defeat, the first when a close 2^nd to current RSA 2^nd fav Santini, she finished in front of a decent field which includes Challenge Cup 2^nd fav OK Corral, her next defeat came in the listed Contenders hurdle to Buveur D’Air and future Grade 2 winner Vision Des Flos that was over a unsuitable sharp 2 miles, but she still showed plenty of pace and to finish 11 lengths from 172 rated BD over a unsuitable trip is pretty standout to me and warrants a big danger to Benie Des Dieux.

MOMELLA looks the forgotten mare of the race, she has good course form and won a good mares handicap here last season, she took the boys on at Aintree NTO in the Grade 1 Mersey novices hurdle where she ran a huge race back in 3^rd, she since moved to Harry Fry’s yard and has been unlucky in both starts, she looked like she was coming with a menacing run on debut over 3 miles in the Long Distance again taking on her opposite sex, she however slipped on landing at the 2^nd last, she did disappoint NTO returned to handicap, but that obviously wasn’t her and if she can put that run behind her and return to anything like her form last year, she’s a huge price in this and a worthy EW punt.

4.50 Close Brothers Novice 2m4f Handicap Chase Listed

A PLUS TARD sits at the top of the betting and is a worthy fav, he’s still open to plenty of improvement and just has the 3 runs to his name over fences, he broke his maiden tag in his 2^nd race at Naas in front of good beginners field which included Duc Des Genieveres who recently smashed the 2^nd fav in this race Tower Bridge by 15 lengths off level weights, taking into account A Plus had 7lbs on DDG and Tower Bridge has 3lbs on A Plus Tard in this that still makes APT over 9 lengths better off on my calculations. APT last race was a respectful 2^nd in a good Grade 3 when he bumped into Winter Escape who completed his hat trick and is considered a Grade 1 novice, they were well clear of the rest of the field with Jetz the best of the rest who won a Grade 3 at Navan to boost the form.

Riders Of The Storm not exactly holds the strongest form, his 3^rd to Hardline on boxing Day isn’t the worst piece of form and he did progress well when well backed to win at Punchestown in a much weaker race, his mark of 139 doesn’t leave him looking that well treated in my book and I’m happy to leave him off the shortlist.

Cubomania needs a big mention as he’s the only course winner in the field, he’s had a lot of race action thou for a novice and so that leaves me with big doubts his unexposed and his 142 mark looks right should find it hard IMO even if Davy Russell has chosen him out of Gordon Elliott’s best 3.

SHADY OPERATOR could be very well handicapped if he puts his last display behind him, on his penultimate race he was very well backed to win a 3m1f contest at Punchestown in front of a now 150 rated Ballyward, they met each other NTO in a Grade 3 novice at Naas this time Shady wasn’t well backed and he had the form heavily reversed with Ballyward romping the field, Shady was has a huge 30 lengths behind which looks a little too bad to be true, maybe a plot? IDK but he comes into this on a mark of 137 which looks very exploitable considering his beat a 150 rated horse off level weights already this season and needs a market check.

5.30 Challenge Cup 4m Amateur Rider’s Novice Chase Grade 2

Previously mentioned Ballyward was 4^th in last years Albert Bartlett here and has made a great start to his chase career, his last piece of form when dominating a Grade 3 novice at Naas has worked out well with the 11 length 2^nd winning a Grade 2 NTO at Navan, Ballymore looked every bit a stayer in the process and this step up in trip should play to his strengths more so than OK Corral who finished 2^nd in last years Albert Bartlett, he also has made a good start to his chasing career winning both starts, the first when beating Impulsive Star who did win a Grade 3 handicap NTO receiving a lot of weight from the field, OK Corral then won listed novices Warwick beating just 3 rivals who all dented that piece of form NTO, so not only has his form plenty of holes he doesn’t exactly strike me as a stayer like Ballymore and for me is a big lay.

DISCORAMA was one of the eye catchers of last years festival, in the 2m4f Martin Pipe, he sat at the back of a slow gallop but done fantastic to get as close as he did to Blow By Blow who made all and was given an easy time of things upfront, Disco started his chasing career in fine style winning beginners chase at Naas, the form not really holding much weight, his next race he finished a respectful 4^th in a very hot form race, he was screaming out for further that day and got his wish NTO when going toe to toe with Ballyward over 3miles, which looked to a have thrilling finish install when it looked like Disco was coming to take Ballyward until he pecked on landing leaving a easy victory for Ballyward in the end, Disco had a easy landing and that shouldn’t of dented Disco’s confidence and if you fancy Ballyward you should also be looking at Disco after performance especially at nearly treble the odds.

The interesting horse and ew bet of the race for me is ATLANTA ABLAZE, she’s done nothing but impress, she’s had a long season hasn’t stopped since April last year, but she’s showing no signs of fatigue and has only improved, she was rated 112 in April and now 143 and her 7lb allowance makes her look even more dangerous and will only have to improve a little more to win this, she seems to like any course characteristic and the ground will also suit, the trip like most will be into the unknown, but her pedigree and the way she travels through her races all show the step up in trip will suit.

1.30 Grand Sancy 14/1 Itchy Feet 33/1 e/w

2.10 Glen Forza 4/1 (nap)

2.50 Crucial Role 22/1 Up For Review 7/1 (saver)

3.30 Apple’s Jade/ Buveur D’Air 5.5/1 (forecast) Apple’s Jade/ Buveur D’Air/ Melon 51/1 (tricast)

4.10 Momella 20/1

4.50 A Plus Tard 13/2 Shady Operator 20/1 e/w

5.30 Discorama 6/1 Atlanta Ablaze 18/1 e/w

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Sandown

2.30 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Bonne Question 6/5

Obvious risks playing in these types of races, with the doubt about the experience of the jockeys, but the gelding looks a steering job after his last display just 10 days ago where he made his season reappearance after 9 months off for a bang inform Venetia Williams yard, he had them all off the bridle 3 out and jockey Charlie Deutshe sat on the horse motionless all the way to the line while the horse pulled away effortlessly from the field and won 19 lengths hard held, obviously could of won by a whole lot more, the handicapper has raised him 12lbs which is not only looking light but he only gets a 7lb hike in this race for the quick turnaround, so his extremely well treated and like I said a steering job if the horse doesn’t bounce.

3.05 2m4f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – Two For Gold 6/1

This horse brings in the strongest form to the plate and had a great season, the dual bumper winner started the season in a hot Supreme novices trial at Cheltenham, he finished a just over 4 lengths away from now rated 153 Elixir de Nutz who has arguably the strongest 2 mile novice form on show this season is a Grade 1 novice winner when picking up the Tolworth at Sandown. Further behind that day and well beaten Colonel Custard who beat Glen Forza subsequently who went on to beat Kalashnikov by 19 lengths, also boosts Two For Gold’s form. Two For Two himself went on to boost the form and improve since going up in trip when making all easily at Wetherby NTO and then very game when beating Trio For Rio by a short distance, Trio For Rio is rated as high as 132 so Two For Gold’s handicap mark of 133 is lenient and the progressive hurdler from the bang in form Kim Bailey’s yard should appreciate handicap company for the first time.

3.40 3m Class 3 Grand Military Gold Cup – Le Reve 7/2

Another race with doubts about the jockeys, but a little more confident on this jockey’s abilities as she does hold more experience and has won this race twice in the past (2011 & 2013) so she’s the right girl for the job IMO. Her mount Le Reve loves Sandown and his record here over fences reads 21131PP8P, an even better 21118 over this C&D, his last victory over this C&D was 3 years a go off a mark of 144 and went up to 149 which didn’t leave him many options, he’s since been highly tried off a harsh mark which included a try in the National where he didn’t embarrass, just 7 races since has seen his mark tumble very quickly down to 125, he capitalised when winning the Surrey National LTO giving him a mark of 130, he just creeps into this race and with the track, trip, ground, jockey, horse inform and trainer Lucy Wadham in great form and her only runner of the day, he looks the standout in this race.

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Leopardstown

2.30 2m 0-109 Handicap Hurdle – Commandant 11/4

This son of Presenting who has been a sire to many greats like Yorkhill, Ballycasey, War of Attrition, First Lieutenant and superstar Denman, so Commandant’s mark of 106 is very exploitable, he’s a big horse that will excel when jumping bigger fences, but for now the improving gelding recorded a pleasing close 3^rd LTO in a deeper race, he does go up 3lb for that but there looks plenty more to come and professional jockey Rachel Blackmore takes back over the reigns who was on the gelding for his only career win which will be a big plus.

Southwell

5.00 3m Class 5 Handicap Hurdle – Rodeo Dodo 2/1

Won much easier than bare result explains on his 4^th start over hurdles after a long 16 months off the track, it was his first start in a handicap and had the aid of the first time tongue tie,  he was given a mark of 87 which on pedigree looks ridiculous, he only goes up 5lbs for his victory to 92 and the step up to 3 miles is not only perfect on his latest display but pedigree is all for it, plus he produced his best in PTP over 3 miles, he does reappear under 2 weeks since his last run, but he wasn’t ridden at all hard and still should be fairly fresh from his long break. Bridget Andrews takes back over the reigns who is great confident form and has shared 2 other winners the last 2 weeks with trainer Dan Skelton who himself has his string in the usual consistent form and he has a good record when sending them to Southwell.

Wolverhampton

6.15 6f Class 5 Handicap – Steelriver 11/4

Maybe not the best of prices considering how hard it is to get this horse right, but this gelding was once rated 95 and ran some big races in much tougher races especially around Wolvo for today’s trainer Michael Herrington, while still showing ability, he at the same time showed big kinks and a liking for not getting his head in front, he was given opportunities for David Barron and Irish trainer  J F Levins and racked up a huge losing sequence which went back nearly 4 & half years until he recently romped home in a weak class 6 off just 61 over a week ago over this C&D, that was just his 4^th run on his return back to Mr Herrington’s yard where he has been running consistently well but again frustratingly close. He’s been raised 7lbs for that victory to 68 which is lenient on past form and if he runs anything like his run LTO he’ll win again comfortably, but as explained, it’s very hard to know if the gelding will be game today.

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Sedgefield

2.50 3m2f Class 2 Handicap Chase – Dartford Warbler 4/1

Once rated and won off a mark of 125 over hurdles many moons ago (September 2013), since has relatively struggled off that mark over both hurdles and fences, his chase record was at one time very worrying with just the 1 win from 25 runs, however since he was upped in trip to 3 miles for the first time over fences June last year he hasn’t looked back and has relished the testing trips, since then his record over 3m + trips reads 13311 and has simply quadrupled his career wins over fences. The ground versatile horse won his last 2 races on soft ground but recorded his career best on good ground, so happy to back no matter what the weather does today, he’s a C&D winner which he recorded on his penultimate run in strange finish, he then confirmed that form when making all and bolting up at Market Rasen beating Conas Taoi who won NTO finishing in a 1-2 with who Dartford Warbler beat in is penultimate race again giving his form a nice look to it, he’s again raised 7lbs and while we’ll never see him close to his 125 rated hay day his new mark of 105 still looks very workable,  he tries his hand in a much tougher 0-125 race, but receiving weight from the whole field may suit this inform gelding and should be more progress over his new testing trip.

Huntingdon

3.35 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Thounder 2/1

The penny has dropped on Dyliev and his record in his last 4 races reads 2121, his last victory when beating Thounder back in 3^rd by a length, they both have unexposed profiles and both capable of quick improvement, but the manner of Thounder’s defeat when making big notable mistakes in the business end looked very costly and to finish just a length behind while also still relatively rusty needs marking up, he also has a 2lb swing on Dyliev in this, which alone is enough to reverse the form.

Sedgefield

3.55 2m5f Class 2 Handicap Chase – The Paddy Pie 3/1

Been very consistent since his switch to fences the start of the season and hasn’t been out of the top 3 in 6 of his runs, he’s today chasing a hat trick, his won around Sedgefield before over 2 miles on his penultimate race before being stepped up to 2m4f LTO at Haydock where he again won under a drive to win by over a length, his narrow victories have done connections big favours and he’s only been risen a total of 5lbs for both victories, so the inform progressive gelding looks more than capable of taking the rise in his stride and completing the hat trick.

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Doncaster

1.50 3m Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – Who’s My Jockey 7/2

Who’s My Jockey has taken the eye so many times in his races, at one minute he looks to be cruising and traveling all over his competition and then to being lacklustre & struggling, then back to being brilliant on a flick of a switch, watching his last run was a perfect example when up with the pace and travelling well to just having 2 behind him 3 out in a 14 strong field, when looking well beat and around 15 lengths behind the leader and eventual winner, his switch flicked and slowly got back into the race taking beaten rivals, still 10 lengths behind when exiting the straight and 2 out he had a lot to do but stayed on very strongly to get to within a length and a half behind the winner on the line, which looked almost impossible considering he was giving away a lot of weight at the time. Today the step up in trip not only looks a big plus on his latest run but the attraction is the first-time cheek pieces, which if they sort out his concentration, he could be a potential beast and some big prize money grade races to come.

Newbury

2.40 2m4f Grade 3 Handicap Chase – Happy Diva 5/1

A very open race, that possibly anyone can win, the favourite and one of only two mares in the field must be given a lot of respect, she’s very consistent and will no doubt give her best show, from her 12 runs over fences she’s finished in the top 3 11 times, a crazy 92%. Her last race seen her against her own sex when recording her 4^th victory in a listed race, the time before she was a distant 23 lengths 3^rd to Cyrname, which was a terrific performance considering she was only rated 8lbs lower than Cyrname and he went on to a emphatic win in the Betfair Ascot Chase and is now the highest rated jumps horse with a rating of 178, which I know doesn’t always work like this, but on that performance, gives her a rating of at least 148, she comes here on 142, so a possible bit in hand, but again a tough race but very exciting non the less.

Kelso

3.15 2m2f Grade 2 Novices Hurdle – Windsor Avenue 5/1

All eyes on Getaway Trump who no doubt has the strongest form of the race with his 2^nd behind current Barring Bingham fav Champ in the Grade 1 Challow Novices  and more recent 4^th in a Grade 3 Handicap at Ascot behind current Supreme Novices fav Al Dancer, however this wasn’t Paul Nicholls original plan coming here this close to Cheltenham, he was due to run a few weeks back before the Fluenza ruined his plans, so I’m guessing this will just be looked as a leg stretch before his main target at the festival this month, that also goes with the 2^nd fav Rouge Vif who also has an engagement at the festival, albeit an outsider but surely is being prepped for it, so with that being said, I’m siding with Windsor Avenue who doesn’t have a prior engagement and looks the most progressive one of the field, on his penultimate race, he finished in a blanket in a very hot form race, the winner Ask Ben romped home NTO by 19 lengths before finishing 2^nd in a Grade 2, the 2^nd Beakstown won a Grade 2 and is now rated 142 and the 3^rd finished 2^nd in a good class 2, Windsor Castle him self boosted that form when winning eye catchingly by 15 lengths at Sedgefield, he may not have the quality as Al Dancer but he certainly has a bright future and will be aimed for this.

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Newbury

1.45 2m5f Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Baddesley Prince 7/2 Max bet

A fairly exposed field and with just 3 runs to his name, Baddesley Place can just capitalise on being unexposed alone, he improved LTO in a decent looking novice 6 lengths behind Brandon Castle who recently boosted the form significantly when romping home by 9 lengths in a decent looking race, Brandon Castle won on a mark of 130 and will likely be raised by at least 10lbs to a mark of 140, Baddesley Place has been accessed a mark of 115 which leaves him looking obviously very well in compared. LTO he was staying on strong over 2 miles and looked like he wanted further, he gets his wish here over 2 mile 4 furlongs, the progressive gelding will only have to produce a display like LTO to win this IMO and if he has improved again since, then it could look the easiest win of the day.

Lingfiled

2.00 1m Class 5 Handicap – Motajaasid 3/1

Another very confident selection if it wasn’t for his draw which I’ll touch upon later, the gelding has a solid record on the AW for Richard Hughes that reads 18152, his last win came at Southwell over a mile in a good form race early December, 2 runs later and his last run produced a career best at this course which he encountered for the first time in a good class 3 0-90, they went quick upfront which may of flattered him in the end, but he had a lot to do and had to lose a lot of ground coming very wide to do it, but he was very eye catching in to get as close as he did to a well-treated Maksab who beat Group 3 winning Yafta off a similar mark in the past. Motajaasid performance needs marking up for that effort and is due to go up 2lb in the future, not only that but he drops back into a much easier Class 5 0-75 here. A lot of big positives, bit I am a little uncertain on the tactics, I’d like to see take up an early lead with the pace unconvincing on his inner, however if they decide to hold him up or he doesn’t break well, I’d be much less confident on his chances, either way, I think the bet is good and worth the risk.

Doncaster

2.10 2m1f Class 4 Novice Handicap Hurdle – Legal History 11/10

Although no wins to his name on the flat, he ran a few good races and was rated as high as 87, he moved to David Pipe yard late last year to try his hand over the jumps where his made a good impression under gentle rides, the handicapper has given him a rating 105 which compared to his flat mark looks very exploitable, so David Pipe wastes no time and sends the gelding handicapping, he also gets the aid of the first time cheek pieces which could be a huge plus in this weak race that won’t take much winning.

Lingfield

3.05 6f Class 3 Handicap – Merhoob 5/2

A very likeable gelding that’s been improving with age which is very uncommon for a sprinter, the gelding has a real liking for Lingfield with 3 wins at the course with his record reading 211122, his last run around here was just under 2 weeks ago where he went off a co fav and looked the winner when hitting the front over 1 furlong out, he however was nabbed on the line, maybe hitting the front too soon, he got his due rewards when winning stylishly NTO in a good class 2 0-105 race at Wolverhampton recording a career best, he is hit with a 6lb penalty and again will have to win off a career high mark, but Luke Morris booked again, a return to Lingfield and in an easier 0-95 race see’s him as the one they all have to beat.

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Catterick

2.20 2m3f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle – Bazarov 13/8

Trainer Archie Watson tries his hand in the National Hunt scene for the first time, the relatively new trainer has hit the ground running on the flat and has already established himself as a top trainer with a very exciting future, the ex William Haggas assistant has had stints in the past with Paul Webber and top jump trainer Alan King, so it’s safe to say he’ll know the time of day in thjs sphere. His first horse over the obstacles comes in the shape of Bazarov, an ex Irish horse from the John O Clifford yard, whose yet to train a career winner, so the horse is obviously potentially very well handicapped, his last run over hurdles seen a very promising 2^nd in a strong form race, he was sandwiched between winner Chosen Hour who won again NTO off a 6lb higher mark and 3^rd Cliondar Mo Chroi who also won his next race giving Bazarov a nice form boost which unfortunately hasn’t gone unnoticed by the handicapper with raising him 12lbs which will also be down to switching shores and to a higher profile trainer. But I’m still very positive he’ll still be well in and much better than this weak field.

Ffos Las

2.40 3m Class 4 Handicap Chase – Quieto Sol 4/1

Another that’s recently moved and the gelding will make his 2^nd start for Kerry Lee since moving from Charlie Longsdon, the gelding was a 108 wining hurdler 3 years ago and just missed out winning off 113 later in the year, since then he’s been very lightly raced but had ran a few good races off higher marks, when switching yards he was off the track for over a year and made his debut not only for new trainer but over fences where he made a promising start, he was a little too keen early on which he was entitled too after a lengthy break and jumped a little right, but his first start over fences he was pleasing, especially on heavy ground which doesn’t look to suit, he not only would of learned a lot from that, but the drying ground will also be a big plus, his mark of 105 looks very workable compared to his hurdle form and likely to improve over fences.

3.10 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Delface 7/2

Inform David Pipe has a good hand at Ffos Las today and his best chance is with this gelding who is a past C&D winner who was rated as high as 119, he didn’t live up to expectations and with only a good run here and there he steadily fell down to a mark of a 101 over a year period, he was given a wind operation last year which has looked to of brought back some of his old form, he won very well on his 3^rd outing this season giving weight away to whole field, his next and last run again was very promising when again off top weight and beaten by a well treated The Crazed Moon who completed her hat trick, they was well clear of the rest field. Today Delface returns to Ffos Las on a mark of 107 which still looks well in on past form and there doesn’t look like there is as well as treated rivals as he’s faced recently.

Wolverhampton

5.30 7f Class 5 Novice – Bay Of Naples 5/6

You don’t get many Mark Johnston winning at double digit odds in low class races especially when in top form, but the inform trainer has had 2 in the last 2 weeks, the first was this colt when winning at 14/1 at Lingfield on the 15^th, he’s a very bred son of Exceed And Excel, he broke out the gates very well and dictated the pace and looked in control, he was a sitting duck upfront for the field for a long time and looked vulnerable, but he kept on gamely to win by a short margin, he looks the type to be very progressive and we’ll see his best over further which was also evident when Joe Fanning struggling to pull the horse up after the line, but for now his quality should see him better this field.

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Fontwell

2.05 2m3f Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Silver Quay 13/8

In brilliant form and still improving now the penny has dropped, he’s chasing a quick hattrick after breaking his maiden tag around Taunton last month in fine style and then backing that up when winning over a identical C&D off 10lbs more NTO, that was in a conditionals jockey race, so although due to go up 7lbs for that victory in the future, he escapes that here which leaves his very well in, Bryony Frost rides once again for her farther and obviously gets on well with the gelding.

Kelso

3.35 2m7f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – Aye Right 6/4

Already has 3 wins to his name this season, his only loss this season came in a tough 0-140 at Cheltenham where he was far from disgraced when a close 6^th in a good form race. His last victory came at Ayr early last month in another 0-140 race where they went a good gallop and he dictated throughout, he only goes up 4lb for that win and with a distinct lack of pace on here, the progressive gelding looks likely to add to his impressive record in a fairly weak 0-125 race.

Leicester

4.00 2m7f Class Handicap Chase – Hurricane Dylan 13/8

Another race with no pace involved and likely front runner Hurricane Dylan on paper looks hard to pass, he’s made a good start to his chasing career even if not winning, he looked like winning on chasing debut on New Years Day before been reeled in close home on his preferred good ground, his next race in handicap company was again pleasing even if not at home on softer ground and again looked the likely winner when hitting the front 4 out and pulling away briefly, he unfortunately looked a bit tired on the soft surface and couldn’t maintain it to the line, but still finished a close 3^rd, the return to good ground will see his best and a slight drop in trip also a plus.

Chelmsford

6.30 6f Class 5 Handicap – Antonia Clara 7/2

Ran a huge race at Kempton the last time she seen handicap company, she had a horrid draw in 12 but was quickly out and ridden to the front, she looked to be going well 1f out and looked likely to win, but early exertions wouldn’t of helped and she only was one paced to the line, she wasn’t so good in her next 2 races, but the 5f clearly doesn’t suit and the return to 6f and back into handicap company will see her at her best and this won’t take much winning especially on a easier mark.

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