Author: Russell Blair

Thurles

2.10 2m4f Grade 2 Chase – A Toi Phil 20/1

Invitation Only sits at the top of the betting but not only a horse I’m not convinced by, as I’ve touched upon a couple of times recently, the Willie Mullins yard is far from firing and has seen a load of favs losing and even a large amount of odds on getting turned over, mainly noticeable with his chasers which is backed up by him just running 2 in the last 2 weeks which is very unlike him and compared to the 20 his sent over hurdles I’m even more certain half of his yard are unwell or over coming a bug/virus of some sort. He also saddles Total Recall who I do like more than Invitation Only and was well clear of him LTO with both coming off near identical breaks, both would have come on for the run, so I’d stick with TR, but again with yard issues I’d pass on both.

Tout Est Permis is one of the least exposed since his switch to Noel Meade yard from Mouse Morris yard, since the switch his won his last 2, while not looking to beat a lot, he’s still done it well and certainly looks more to give, while I won’t be surprised to see him win, I still think this is too big a step up in grade and the sharp trip not in favour.

Sub Lieutenant will like the ground and the past 162 rated gelding has been a runner up in grade 1 events, he loves a undulating right track so everything set up for a big run, he was however well below form when last seen behind Invitation Only and Total Recall, the sharp trip may have been the reason and may need further like his last win over 3 miles, or he simply wasn’t up for it on the day and if that is the reason and he’s up for it today, he’ll be dangerous.

But preference is for Gordon Elliott’s mount, the trainer has a great record in the race, he’s won it 3 times from 3 in the last 4 years and has 2 outsiders saddled up for this year, which includes last years winner A TOI PHIL, granted he didn’t have to beat much and this will be tougher, plus the ground much quicker than he prefers even if he has won on ground this firm in the past a couple of times, but with all the negatives it would be no surprise to see this horse return to form with Jack Kennedy back aboard, it’ll be the first time he’s ridden the gelding this season who knows and has gotten the best out of him in the past, plus the gelding returning to a right handed undulating course will also see him at his best and is very appealing at his huge odds.

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Lingfield

2.00 1m4f Class 2 Handicap – Redicean 4/5

The inform gelding has won back to back on the AW and is now rated 97 after his last runaway victory over this C&D, he was initially held up but with the lack of pace jockey Martin Harley decided to take the race into his own hands and eased the horse to the front 5 furlongs out and won with plenty in hand, you don’t see them tactics pulled off often and even more so how effortlessly and quickly he did it, it certainly showed the horse has handfuls in hand and his mark of 144 over hurdles backs that up, he sensibly gets at least another go on the flat and who knows whether AW finals day is not a crazy thought.

Ascot

2.25 2m3f Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle – Seddon 4/1

A very wide-open race with lots with chances but one of the least exposed that holds some of the strongest form is Seddon, the gelding beat Not That Fuisse on seasonal reappearance, he’s since went on to run big races behind quality horses, most notably 2^nd to Al Dancer before winning a class 3 and now rated 129. Seddon next race was a good 3^rd to current 2^nd fav for the Supreme Elixir De Nutz rated 145. Then he was another 3^rd to clear fav for the Supreme Angels Breath. He does race keen however and this step up in trip may not be ideal if they don’t get him to settle, but on the flip side, if they do, he’ll be tough.

3.00 2m5f Class 2 Handicap Chase – Mr Medic 8/1

Another wide open contest but one that stood out to me straight away was this gelding, he’s 2 from 2 at Ascot over fences and a positive 5 wins from 9, his last win he out jumped the field and was a eye catching when beating a strung out field, he went up 9lb for the win and then raced in a hot Grade 3 Handicap at Cheltenham, where again he impressed and looked dangerous before a big mistake 4 out and nearly parting way with the jockey, he did recover quickly but then just as quickly faded tamely after possibly knocking the stuffing out of him. He does have a big say now dropped into a much easier race, I am however concerned about the pace of the race, there looks a lot of early speed and with Mr Medic likely involved in that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big priced closer like San Benedeto take the spoils.

Haydock

3.15 3m1f Grade 2 Handicap Chase – Red Infantry 7/1

This looks a race with no pace involved and our gelding made virtually all at this track on his penultimate run with Tom O’Brien aboard on fast ground, he then went on to run a big 2^nd in stronger handicap on what looked unsuitable soft ground. Today the return to a right-handed track, the ground much more suitable and jockey O’Brien recalled with the lack of early pace all in favour the progressive gelding has a great chance of adding to his tally.

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Ascot

1.50 2m7f Grade 2 Mares Hurdle – If You Say Run 3/1

Current fav Magic of Light impressed and won very easily LTO, but that was over fences and now rated 150 in that sphere, she has a mediocre record over hurdles with just the 1 win from 7 and rated just 113 when last seen 16 months ago, no doubt she’s improved since but a lot of that looks down to the bigger obstacles.

If You Say Run looked to be in command when coming to take Mia’s Storm before hanging badly and throwing the race away in a Listed event at Kempton on Boxing day, it’s quite hard what to make of that run, it’s the first time she’s ran at that trip and it may of just come a little too soon after her 2m6f win a couple of weeks ago after a 231 day break, there’s no doubting her ability and attitude before this race, so she’s to be given another chance, the ground easing shouldn’t be a problem and the galloping Ascot track will also benefit.

Culture De Sivola was just in behind If You Say Run that day, that was on the back of a 240-day break from the track and she then won NTO, the ease in the ground will suit her and her fitness would suggest she’ll be closer today.

Jester Jet the most experienced of this field is genuine and will give another good account of herself no doubt, trouble is she must carry a 4lb penalty and I’m convinced she’s better over shorter trips and definitely thrives going left handed rather than this right-handed track.

Petticoat Tails is interesting at this new trip, she’s certainly bred for it and the more rain the better, she’s certainly the EW shout of the race even if only 2 places on offer. Shimmer’s Rock completes the line up and her only wins have come in weak races over 2 miles, she’ll have to improve by 26 lengths plus to be competitive in this.

3.35 2m1f Grade 1 Clarence House Chase – Altior 1/8

Altior is simply an unbelievable gelding that’s still remarkably improving, he’s unbeaten in all his 16 runs over obstacles in 39 months and has 7 Grade 1’s to his name, barring a crazy accident he looks looks destined to add another Grade 1 to his name. Even though just the one run to his name around Ascot which was over hurdles, the right-handed galloping track is his forte even if being super versatile. He’s bumped into Diego Du Charmil twice already in the last year period and had him beat by a combined 35 lengths, he’s also faced double Grade 1 winning Fox Norton nearly 2 years ago where he won on the bridle by 13 lengths to a hard-pushed Fox Norton while carrying a 5lb penalty. At 1/8 it’s certainly no betting proposition even looking bomb proof and even if looking a one-horse race, it’s hard not to watch even it’s just to admire him.

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A frustrating day yesterday with 3 seconds, one by a neck and our other fell at the 2^nd last when coming back at the leader and eventual winner when well clear of the rest of the field.

Chepstow

1.05 2m7f Class 4 Handicap Chase – Royal Tara 7/1

Hard not to have a selection up from the bang inform Venetia Williams yard, she’s had 6 winners in the last 2 weeks, 33% strike rate and 5 close 2nds, a huge 61% covering the top 2 places, she sends 2 to Chepstow today, Tara Flow and half brother Royal Tara. Royal Tara is her best chance, he’s very lightly raced with just 5 runs to his name over fences, just the one win but very consistent and has been placed 3 times in the others, his last when a solid 3^rd in a 0-125 after 182 days off, although racing keen he impressed but felt the pinch from his exuberance and lack of racing action after the 3^rd and fell away tamely, he’ll come on for the run and this 0-115 will be easier.

Lingfield

2.30 6f Class 2 Handicap – Gorgeous Noora 11/10

Was a big eye catcher when making her debut for Archie Watson over C&D last week, she was travelling all over her competition before having nowhere to go and having to apply the brakes, the gap opened far too late and was gently pushed to claim a close 3^rd. I’m certain she would have won that race quite easily and took her C&D tally to 2 from 2. She goes unpenalized for that and should get her rewards this time around.

Chepstow

3.20 2m3f Class 3 Mares Handicap Hurdle -Smaoineamh Alainn 4/1

Already touched upon this jockey in a couple of posts, but Rex Dingle has all the makings of a star jockey and he’s to followed blind and take advantage of his very useful claim while you still can. Rex this season already has 23 wins to his name from 105 rides, a 22% strike rate and 48% covering the top 3 places, he has a superb 55%-win rate in the last 2 weeks. The mare he teams up with today is from the Robert Walford yard and the partnership have already had a winner in the last 3 days. Alainn is highly thought of by connections and due to face Laurina in a Listed event 2 weeks ago before a self cert, before that she’s been very highly tried racing against Grade 1 competition on unfavoured ground. Today she’s back down to her last winning mark, the ground is easing as I type and she’s back against more suitable competition.

Kempton

6.45 2m Class 4 Handicap – Given Choice 11/10

Trainer Simon Crisford is in superb form for the start of the year and already has 4 wins to his name from 8 tries, 3 others have paced. One of victors was filly Given Choice, she won a 1m6f event at Wolverhampton, granted there wasn’t much competition, but she impressed under a hands and heels ride and won by 5 lengths eased down taking her tally to 3 from 6 on the AW. Her run before that, she was 2^nd in a strong Class 2 to Aircraft Carrier who’s since boosted the form when winning a marathon Fast Track Qualifier at Wolves the start of the week, that form alone holds her head and shoulders above this field.

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Good day with 2 winners at 3/1 (15p rule 4) & 9/2 and a head away from 3 winners.

Market Rasen

• 1.00 2m7f Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Ballyhome 4/1

Won well on his first start for connections 3 runs back in a 0-110 novice race, he was raised 10lbs for his troubles but ran two fine races in tougher races, the last in a 0-130 at Haydock where he looked to be claiming his 2^nd win over hurdles when jumping the last in command, but unfortunately he looked a little tired in the end over the soft underfoot conditions and was tamely beat by over 3 lengths. Today he returns to a much easier 0-125 and the sounder surface is a big plus.

Wincanton

1.55 1m7f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – Highest Sun 11/4

The most confident selection of the 4, the ex French gelding cost 125k euros, he’s been highly tried in both his 2 starts for Colin Tizzard, the first when racing too keen but still a great run finishing 3^rd to a good class 2 field. He again impressed visually NTO at Cheltenham, although soundly beaten by Al Dancer who is potentially Grade 1 class, he still finished a good 4^th and was just a length behind Not That Fuisse who won a 0-140 NTO at Taunton. Highest Sun today, drops into a much easier race, handily is eased a lb by the handicapper and inform jockey Harry Cobden takes back over the reigns.

2.25 3m2f Class 3 Handicap Chase – Potters Corner 5/1

Inform trainer Christian Williams sends just the one to Wincanton which is C&D winner Potters Corner, he won on just his 3^rd start for his new connections and is now rated 127, in the past over hurdles he’s won off a mark of 130 so looks well in and still unexposed over fences. His latest win also showed signs of more to come and with no pace in the is race, it’ll suit and will likely try to make all again.

Newcastle

3.55 1m4f Class 5 Handicap – Dommersen 7/2

This gelding was rated 97 earlier in the year, granted for star trainer John Gosden, he was then very poor in 5 runs for his new trainer Roger Fell and quickly dropped to a mark of 77, then returned to form and ran a huge race at this course over 2 furlongs shorter, while I’m not 100 percent convinced this 1m4f trip is his best, but while looking very well handicapped and weighted to reverse the form with odds on shot Elysees Palace his definitely worth the risk.b

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Newbury

1.10 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Ar Mest 3/1

The gelding beat Percy Street when a well backed favourite the end of last year, that was just his 4^th run in handicap company and his 1^st on good ground, the gelding travelled and jumped very well, he goes up 6lb for the victory but the services of 10lb claiming Niall Houlihan means his very well in. The ground to suit again, he’ll like the galloping course, and this is drop in grade, the unexposed gelding is set for another big run.

Lingfield

1.20 1m2f Class 5 Handicap – Renegade Master 9/2

He defied the gambled-on Target Zone over this course just 10 days ago, he was weak in the market and went off 25/1 but won like a short-priced fav when being eased down late on when the race had been sealed. He’s bred for further so this step up to 1m2f will see more of an improvement. Nicola Currie takes the reigns once again who is in brilliant recent form.

Newbury

2.50 2m7f Class 3 Handicap Chase – Quarenta 10/3

Won on just his 2^nd run over fences when relishing a sounder surface, his stamina proved a real asset while not jumping all that quickly at many obstacles which included the last where he was slow while his challenger was quick and hit the ground running, but Quarenta knuckled down and wore down Muckle Roe impressively, he’ll come on for that run and would of learnt a lot, he does go up 6lb but very unexposed.

Kempton

6.00 6f Class 5 Handicap – Soar Above 11/4

The gelding won first time out for new connections and took his tally to an impressive 3 from 6 on the AW 3 from 4 in handicaps and 3 in a row all at Kempton. His last victory was his most impressive from a similar draw he broke well and eased to the front and when asked pulled away from the field and maintained a good gallop to the line with just 2 cracks of the whip, he goes up 5lb for that easy victory and has to face better company here, but he does still look open to further.

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Expected better from today, especially after the first won well, the others all came in 2^nd, but with the winner winning at 3/1, there’s no harm done.

Lingfield

1.40 2m Class 4 Handicap Chase – Air De Rock 11/8

Trainer Venetia Williams is in fine form and she sends 2 to Lingfield, both I can see winning, the first Air De Rock is extremely unlucky not to have a win or two next to his name, on his penultimate run he was 5 lengths in front and travelling very well on the bridle before getting the 2^nd to last fence wrong and falling. That was just his 2^nd run over fences and was hit with a 6lb rise, his next run was just as eye catching and again was very unlucky when just beat on a head bobber. He was beat by an unexposed gelding and looked like a further in time would suit more, they pulled well away from the rest of the field and with the quick turnout he won’t face being accessed by the handicapper and there doesn’t look like any stiff competition or unexposed types like last time.

2.40 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle – Shaws Cross 7/2

The gelding won impressively even though by a small margin, he looked well beat before the last, but his stamina proved to be too good against a good field and the front 2 was well clear of a strung-out field. He went up 6lb for the victory and ran a fine race when 2^nd NTO, the race wasn’t run to suit, but he came with an eye-catching late run but was given too much to do to catch the front runner and eventual winner. Jockey Tom O’Brien takes back the reigns from James Best, not only did he get the only win on the gelding but he’s in brilliant recent form and riding very confidently.

Newcastle

3.20 2m Class 4 Handicap Chase – Halcyon Days 13/8

The gelding loves a galloping track like Newcastle, he’s a C&D winner who ran a huge race behind a well backed favourite at Catterick LTO, they were 12 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. This race not only looks easier but the return to a galloping track will suit more and bring the best out of him.

Lingfield

3.40 2m3f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle – Arqalina 7/4

As previously mentioned, this is the 2^nd horse of the inform Venetia Williams, the mare is still a maiden but only the 3 runs for these connections. Her last run was very solid when a close 3^rd to Uno Mas who since boosted the form when an emphatic 13 length winner in a better race. The unexposed mare gets the services of exciting young jockey Miss Lucy Turner.

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A great day yesterday for the blog with 3 out of 4 winners and one place away from the full house.

Fontwell

1.20 2m3f Class 3 Handicap Hurdle – Not Never 6/4

Was a huge runaway winner on his penultimate run early last year around Plumpton, he was hit hard with a 15lb rise and was highly tried on seasonal debut in a Grade 3 Handicap at Ascot, he ran and shaped better than the 12^th he placed gives him credit for, the form of the race is solid and the 300 days off the track and on testing ground both wouldn’t of helped either and big reasons why he backed out of the race quickly after running so well for most of it.

Today the return to class 3 company will be much easier, the firmer underfoot conditions will be welcome and will be fitter for the run, he also handily gets a 3lb drop to his mark.

Ffos Las

1.30 2m6f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle – Cottonvale 10/3

Trainer Christian Williams is in brilliant recent form with a 45% strike rate to his name in the last 2 weeks, he teams back up with James Bowen who he has a great relationship with and a healthy +£7.15 level stakes profit, 23% strike rate and 46% covering the top 2 places.

The gelding Cottonvale unfortunately fell at the last flight when well in command and looked to finally break his duck over hurdles, which handed the winners spot to stablemate Uno Mas who’s since boosted the form heavily when a runaway 13 length winner in a higher class. That was just Cottonvale’s 4^th run for Christian and the gelding looks to be improving with every run. Providing the fall hasn’t dented confidence, then hopefully the gelding claims that elusive win.

Wolverhampton

6.15 2m Class 2 Conditions – Festival of Ages 11/10

Surprised to see this gelding taking the AW finals route, a horse that would have been very exciting on breeding in Dubai IMO, but anyway even with just the 6 runners for this AW Fast Track Qualifier, it looks competitive and a race to look forward to.

Ex Aidan O’Brien colt Aircraft Carrier has impressed tons on his recent 2 wins and certainly one to watch, I do however feel this is just too much of a step up just for now. Watersmeet won this race last year before a huge run in the Marathon final when just beaten a neck and is the yardstick for this race. Gelding Festival Of Ages although 5yo only has 4 runs to his name so is the least exposed in this race and has already finished ahead of Watersmeet by 3 lengths when they met last month in another FTQ. Today FOA gets the services of Adam Kirby who’s been riding with plenty of confidence and knows the horse better and for me beats Watersmeet once again comfortably.

7.45 1m1f Class 6 Handicap – Bollihope 8/11

The last race of the night and looks the easiest race to call, a very weak race and only one horse to beat in the in form False Id, That being said Bollihope easily brushed aside False Id just last week in a very similar race, False Id is again drawn wide and Bollihop gets a nice sit in draw 1, even thou a 6lb rise for our selection, the distance and the manner of his win shouldn’t be enough to stop him and record a 2 out of 2 wins for new connections.

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Southwell

1.25 5f Class 4 Handicap – Ornate 3/1

Trainer David Griffiths is in terrific recent form and he won this race last year with Pearl Acclaim, this year he tackles it with Ornate who has taken a real liking to the course, the gelding only recently tried the fibresand where he came very close twice in stronger class 3 events and then broke his duck when stepped down to class 4 company with today’s jockey Phil Dennis. There was a lot to like about his victory, he broke sharply, set a good gallop and when asked pulled away from the field and with Phil Dennis struggling to pull the horse up after the line, tells me the horse has plenty more to give.

The gelding’s 6lb penalty looks nothing, not only on visual evidence, but with the horse rated 16lbs higher just 17 months ago, he’s well in ATM and should defy the penalty especially with the pace of the race looking to suit him once again.

1.55 1m4f Class 3 Handicap – Azari 15/8

Trainer Alexandra Dunn has been ticking along well over the course of the year and has built up a strong relationship with exceptional young jockey Rossa Ryan, especially on the AW where they have a 24% strike rate and +£30.5 level stake profit teaming up together. Rossa Ryan travels to Southwell for just the one ride where he has a decent 18% strike rate and +£16.38 LSP.

They team back up with ex Italian gelding Azari who is 2 from 2 at Southwell both with Rossa onboard and the last victory was by a very impressive 7 length victory, on that evidence the 6lb penalty is far from enough to stop the gelding, the only worry would be if the blinkers tried for the 2^nd time don’t have the same desired effect.

Kelso

2.05 2m5f Class 2 Handicap Chase – Mount Mews 2/1

A past Novice Grade 2 winning hurdler over this course for Malcom Jefferson, the gelding loves it around here with a perfect 3 from 3. Mount Mews has just the 3 runs over the bigger obstacles so is open to plenty of improvement and this is his debut for his new yard Donald McCain who has a good record himself at Kelso with a 20% strike rate and with 52% covering the top 3 places.

The gelding runs very well fresh and is versatile ground wise, the yard book Brian Hughes who knows the horse very well and with this looking the weakest race he’s faced ability wise, he should be too good for these if fit.

2.40 2m Class 5 Mares Handicap Hurdle – Choochoobugaloo 6/4

A very weak race that won’t take much winning at all, Choochoobugaloo has been knocking on the door since her switch to bang inform yard Sam England, this will be Sam’s first trip to Kelso which is significant. The mare as previously mentioned has come close in her last 3 runs and the form of her races are all working out well, she hasn’t been hit that hard by the handicapper and being entered in this mare’s race will be more ideal.

Sam’s husband Jonathan takes the reigns once again and this will also be his first race around Kelso, but he has a good record around sharp left-handed tracks and he also in great recent form.

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Not the best Saturday’s action we’ve seen for a while, but even so a few nice races and I’ve looked at the 3 best races of the day and feel pretty confident.

Kempton

2.05 2m4f Listed Chase – Charbel 7/4

Everything in place here for a huge run from Charbel, although the gelding is very versatile, he still thrives on flat right-handed courses, although he’s yet to run at Kempton, he’s latest win and career best at a similar Huntingdon course says he’ll enjoy Kempton too.

The geldings form this season is of the highest and Grade 1 winning if in the right race, he beat Baron Alco in a handicap giving away 12lb, Baron then went on to frank the form when beating a strong field which included Frodon in a Grade 3 Handicap at Cheltenham. Charbel carried his form to Ascot when a very close 2^nd to a past Grade 1 winner Politologue, that form alone is worthy of winning this. Charbel didn’t stop there, he then went on to win the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase in emphatic style and recorded a career best.

The cheek pieces are sensibly retained, the yard notably book Nico de Boinville who’s having a fine season and loves it around Kempton also the dry fast ground will be right up his street and a big disadvantage to his biggest rival Top Notch.

Warwick

2.25 2m5f Grade 2 Novices Hurdle – Tidal Flow 5/4

With Birchdale withdrawn down to a vet’s certificate, Tidal Flow is the obvious looking winner on paper. The gelding is 2 from 2 over hurdles and his latest win looks very smart when beating a highly thought of odds on Downtown Getaway who was a £350k purchase after bolting in, in a strong bumper in Ireland. Tidal Flow was even giving away a 6lb penalty to the Nicky Henderson trained gelding which marks up his performance and warrants him a crack at this much higher Grade of race.

Trainer Philip Hobbs has a good record at Warwick with a 21% strike rate and with 58% placing in the top 3 in the last 5 years and sends just the one to Warwick today, jockey Richard Johnson also has a similar 21%-win rate and 53% placing in the top 3. The gelding will appreciate the ground and won’t mind the sharp track.

Kempton

2.40 2m5f Lanzarote Listed Handicap Hurdle – Darling Maltaix 8/1

A competitive renewal of the Lanzarote even if not the strongest, the horse that impressed me the most LTO was Darling Maltaix, where he tackled todays trip for the first time and finally broke his maiden tag over hurdles on his 10^th attempt of asking. A gelding that’s always looked to have ability but just getting the right conditions to show it.

He won the race effortlessly under Lorcan Williams who know the horse extremely well for riding him out every day, he does have a 12lb penalty for that success but the manner of the way he cruised to a 4 length victory shows he has plenty more to give and with And The New One + Cotswold Way in the field, we’ll get a fast pace early gallop which will play into the hands of a closer like Darling Maltaix.

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